Prigozhin's 'One-Day Reign' Mystery... Analysis by US Think Tank

US War Institute "Attempted to Maintain Control of Wagner Group"
"Possibly Gambled to Preserve Independence"
"Russian Defense Ministry Previously Tried to Remove Prigozhin's Command"

Analysis suggests that Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the mercenary company Wagner Group, initiated a rebellion by advancing toward Moscow, Russia, to avoid losing control over the Wagner Group.

On the 24th (local time), the U.S. think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated in a report, "Prigozhin may have gambled on the idea that the only way to keep the Wagner Group as an independent military force was to march on the Russian Ministry of Defense."

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Russian mercenary company Wagner Group that launched an armed rebellion, is seen greeting residents as he withdraws from Rostov-on-Don, a city in southern Russia that was under occupation, on the 24th (local time).
[Photo by Reuters·Yonhap News]

This is related to Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu's order on the 10th for all irregular forces, including the Wagner Group, to "sign an official contract with the Ministry of Defense by the 1st of next month."

This is related to Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu's order on the 10th for all irregular forces, including the Wagner Group, to "sign an official contract with the Ministry of Defense by the 1st of next month."

The ISW diagnosed that Prigozhin, who had criticized Shoigu and other military leaders, likely regarded this order?known as a means to strip him of command over the Wagner Group?as a "substantial political and personal survival threat."

Accordingly, ISW's analysis suggests that Prigozhin may have taken the risk of moving his forces in a 'gamble' before completely losing control of the Wagner Group.

The institute thought that once Prigozhin launched an armed rebellion, there would be cases of regular Russian troops joining him; however, it assessed that the actual number of regular troops who joined the Wagner Group likely fell short of expectations.

Prigozhin Halts Advance a Day After Rebellion Through Mediation by Belarusian President

Russian Wagner Group mercenaries, who launched an armed rebellion targeting the Russian military leadership, are preparing to withdraw from the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, which they had occupied on the 24th (local time).
[Photo by EPA·Yonhap News]

With not only the regular troops but also nationalist figures within Russia, who were usually considered allies, turning their backs on him, Prigozhin ultimately stopped his advance about a day after initiating the rebellion through mediation by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Instead, the Russian government canceled the criminal charges against Prigozhin and allowed him to leave for Belarus.

However, the ISW forecasted that Prigozhin's rebellion would deal a significant blow to the Russian government.

Specifically, the ISW predicted, "While this rebellion is not expected to cause the immediate collapse of the Russian government, it will inflict considerable damage on President Vladimir Putin's administration and the war in Ukraine."

In particular, the rebellion revealed a shortage of reserves in the Russian rear areas on the Ukrainian battlefield, and it is expected that the morale of Russian troops in Ukraine will decline. The ISW evaluated that this could provide useful information to the Ukrainian forces attempting to break through Russian defensive lines.

The ISW pointed out, "The Kremlin is now in a very unstable equilibrium," adding, "The deal negotiated by Lukashenko is a short-term stopgap rather than a long-term solution, exposing serious vulnerabilities in the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.