Expert on Russian Rebellion: "Putin's Misjudgment... Underestimated Prigozhin"

"Prigozhin Considered Dependent and Loyal"
Rebellion Settled but Aftermath Likely to Continue... Putin Faces Major Crisis

The Russian private military company Wagner Group, which launched an armed rebellion, ultimately withdrew its forces just short of Moscow. However, analyses are emerging that the damage inflicted on Russian President Vladimir Putin by this incident is not insignificant.

Experts unanimously agree that President Putin's misjudgment caused this incident. He underestimated Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group and one of his close associates.

Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Moscow Center's Russia Eurasia Program, told The New York Times (NYT) on the 24th (local time), “Putin thought Prigozhin was completely dependent and loyal,” adding, “He underestimated the threat posed by Prigozhin.”

Andrey Soldatov, a Russian intelligence expert and senior researcher at the European Policy Analysis Center, also expressed the view that “Putin's plan was to keep Prigozhin talking, but he miscalculated.”

Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group (inside the circle), and Vladimir Putin, President of Russia (center) [Image source=Yonhap News]

Foreign media see that even though the Wagner Group's armed rebellion has been settled for now, its repercussions are likely to continue for some time. Political instability may be fostered, and questions may be raised about President Putin's leadership. Additionally, he may face criticism for recklessly initiating the war in Ukraine, which only increased human and material losses and internal divisions.

Russian military expert Mark Galeotti told the NYT, “This incident will damage Putin's credibility and legitimacy.”

The UK Ministry of Defence also assessed in its daily report that “Russia is facing its greatest crisis in recent times,” suggesting that the situation on the battlefield could change due to this incident.

Ruslan Pukhov, head of the military think tank Center for Strategic and Technology Analysis, warned the US daily Wall Street Journal (WSJ), “The hope of Putin and some elites that a prolonged war will benefit Russia is a dangerous illusion,” adding, “The prolongation of the war could bring enormous political risks within Russia.”

The British daily The Guardian cited the summer of 1991 in the former Soviet Union as an example. At that time, a coup attempt by hardliners in the KGB accelerated the collapse of the Soviet Union a few months later.

The Guardian stated, “It is still too early to say history is repeating itself,” but added, “Putin's decision to invade Ukraine is the biggest strategic mistake and has proven to be a serious error that could soon remove him from power.”

On the other hand, Ukraine is optimistic that if it uses this situation well, it can gain the initiative on the battlefield.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the Ukrainian president, told The Guardian on the 24th, “Things are unfolding as we expected last year,” asserting, “Russia has ultimately fractured due to Ukraine's counteroffensive, and now we are witnessing a civil war.”

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar also said, “What this means for us is that a window of opportunity has opened.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.