[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Indefinite Korea-China Military Diplomacy... Depends on US and China

As strategic competition between the U.S. and China continues to expand and deepen, military diplomacy between South Korea and China has also reached a crossroads. Whether the two countries resolve their conflicts is expected to impact South Korea-China military diplomacy as well.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to diplomatic circles on the 19th, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held talks with Qin Gang, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister, in Beijing on the same day. The two foreign ministers held a 7-hour and 30-minute meeting accompanied by a dinner.

On that day, the U.S. and China agreed on four areas. The two countries agreed on ▲ maintaining high-level contacts ▲ advancing consultations on the implementation guidelines for U.S.-China relations ▲ holding working group consultations to resolve current issues ▲ expanding personnel and educational exchanges. However, they failed to narrow differences regarding the escalating tensions over the Taiwan Strait and the current situation where the U.S. excludes China from supply chains in key industries such as semiconductors.

Progress in South Korea-China Military Diplomacy Expected Depending on U.S.-China Relations Improvement
Five Hotlines Maintained to Prepare for South Korea-China Armed Conflict

The visit to China, postponed due to the U.S.-China ‘reconnaissance balloon’ conflict and held after four months, is the first visit by a U.S. top diplomat to China since the Biden administration took office in January 2021, as well as the highest-level official visit to China. Given this, meaningful results are expected, but the reality does not seem easy. Discussions may be limited to so-called ‘guardrails’ (safety measures) to prevent escalation into armed conflict. Before his visit, Secretary Blinken said, "Sustained diplomacy is necessary to prevent fierce competition from escalating into confrontation or conflict."

>If U.S.-China relations do not improve, it will be difficult to produce progress in South Korea-China military diplomacy. Since June last year, the South Korean and Chinese Ministries of Defense have not held working-level defense policy meetings. Although South Korea and China confirmed their intention to continue personnel exchanges during the recent Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore earlier this month, practical progress has not been made amid U.S.-China conflicts. The last South Korea-China Defense Ministers’ meetings were held in June and November last year, and the last Chinese military remains repatriation event was in September last year.

However, South Korea and China maintain a total of five hotlines to prepare for armed conflict. In June last year, a direct telephone line between the U.S. and China’s navy and air force was additionally installed. This is interpreted as a measure to prevent accidental military clashes between South Korea and China amid increasing security threats around the Korean Peninsula due to North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There are already existing hotlines for one line each between the Chinese navy and air force. However, these lines connect to the ‘Northern Theater Command,’ which mainly oversees the northeastern provinces of China such as the three northeastern provinces, Shandong, and Inner Mongolia, limiting their effectiveness in preventing military conflicts across the East and South Seas.

A military official said, “We plan to promote working-level meetings at the director-general level between South Korea and China at mutually convenient times, but nothing has been decided yet.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.