[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Is North Korea's Satellite Launch Imminent?

Movement Detected for Launch Pad Installation at Dongchang-ri Launch Site
Preparations for Military Parade Ahead of Victory Day at Mirim Airfield

North Korea's movements have accelerated. A launch pad is being erected at the West Sea Satellite Launching Station in Dongchang-ri, Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, and parade preparations have been detected at Mirim Airfield in Pyongyang. It is anticipated that after launching a satellite next month, North Korea may showcase its military strength domestically and internationally during the parade.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 23rd, Radio Free Asia (RFA) analyzed images of the West Sea Satellite Launching Station in Dongchang-ri, Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, taken the previous day by the U.S. commercial satellite 'Planet Labs,' revealing the outline of a new launch pad facility. They suggested it could be a facility for launching the first military reconnaissance satellite.

According to the report, construction work is underway on a rectangular site measuring 140 meters wide and 40 meters long at the West Sea Satellite Launching Station. Satellite images from the 30th of last month showed the construction site with exposed earth, but by the 16th, concrete pouring had been completed. Within six days after that, several large cranes were identified, indicating active construction throughout the area.

Dave Schmerler, a senior researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in the U.S., stated, "North Korea appears to be supplying power for the construction of a new launch pad." The research center estimated that lightning protection equipment, cranes, and a mobile train vehicle base had been installed in the area.

Joseph Bermudez, a senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), also noted the presence of a large building approximately 55 meters long and 27 meters wide, along with more than three large construction cranes at the site, analyzing that "the outline of a new satellite launch pad has emerged."

Previously, the Korean Central News Agency reported that preparations for loading the launch vehicle for the first military reconnaissance satellite had been completed, and that Chairman Kim Jong Un visited the 'Satellite Launch Preparation Committee' on the 16th to approve the committee's 'future action plan.'

If North Korea launches the satellite, it could be aimed at the upcoming trilateral defense ministers' meeting among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, held at the Singapore Asia Security Conference (Shangri-La Dialogue) in early next month. It is expected that the meeting will agree on sharing North Korean missile warning information. Subsequently, specific measures are likely to be discussed at the Washington trilateral summit proposed by President Joe Biden the day before. In this case, it is anticipated that a real-time warning information sharing system could be operational as early as the second half of the year.

Following this, North Korea may flaunt its possession of military satellites at the July parade and intensify efforts to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). July 27 marks the 70th anniversary of the Korean War armistice this year. North Korea claims victory on this day, calling it 'Victory Day,' and has held parades on this date in the 40th anniversary in 1993 and the 60th anniversary in 2013. September 9, the 75th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean regime, could also be a parade date, but since parade preparation trends are usually detected about two months prior, the likelihood currently favors a July event.

Voice of America (VOA) reported on the 19th that satellite images taken by the U.S. private satellite service provider 'Planet Labs' of the parade training ground north of Mirim Airfield in Pyongyang captured groups of dot-like formations resembling troop formations. There were four such formations, found at the northern and northeastern central areas of the training ground and along the main path. Considering expert assessments that previously estimated troop numbers in each formation to be between 50 and 300, it is estimated that approximately 200 to a maximum of 1,200 personnel were present at the parade training ground that day.

Meanwhile, North Korea's most recent parade was held on February 8 to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army, during which the latest ICBM model Hwasong-18 was unveiled.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.