[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] How Far Will South Korea-US-Japan Cooperation Go?

The trilateral cooperation system among South Korea, the United States, and Japan in response to the North Korean nuclear threat is expected to be fully launched. However, it seems that more time will be needed as Japan’s participation is likely to be discussed once the Korea-US Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) is firmly established.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 7th, President Yoon, during a joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida after the Korea-Japan summit held at the presidential office in Yongsan, Seoul, stated, "The Washington Declaration is, for now, an agreement between South Korea and the United States. However, we do not exclude Japan’s participation."

He continued, "From our standpoint, the Washington Declaration between South Korea and the United States is not yet finalized, and we need to continue discussions, joint planning, and joint implementation to fill in the details. Once this is on track, and when Japan is ready in its relationship with the United States, I believe it is an issue where cooperation can happen anytime."

Japan’s Participation Uncertain Until Korea-US Nuclear Consultative Structure Is Fully Operational; Korea-US-Japan Cooperation Likely to Strengthen in Joint Defense Exercises

Realistically, although not immediately, if the Korea-US nuclear consultative structure reaches full operation within the next one to two years, discussions on Japan’s participation could also be actively pursued.

National Security Office Director Cho Tae-yong, in a broadcast interview on the 1st, when asked about the possibility of Korea, the US, and Japan holding a summit around the mid-month G7 summit in Hiroshima to consider establishing a trilateral nuclear umbrella consultative body, said, "The priority is to establish and stabilize the bilateral Korea-US system and work out the details. Talking about that now is very premature," which aligns with this perspective.

Even if Japan does not immediately participate in the NCG, Korea-US-Japan cooperation is expected to strengthen. President Yoon also expressed a serious recognition of the situation at the joint press conference that day, saying, "Both countries are exposed to the North Korean nuclear threat together," and "Security cooperation is more important than ever."

On the 17th of last month, the three countries conducted missile defense exercises in international waters of the East Sea, involving the South Korean destroyer ROKS Yulgok Yi I, the US destroyer USS Benfold, and the Japanese destroyer JS Atago. This was the third missile defense exercise since the inauguration of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration, following exercises in October last year and February this year. Additionally, in March, the Korea-Japan General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) normalization measures were completed, restoring the mechanism for exchanging intelligence on North Korea.

Some express concerns that the Korea-US-Japan alliance might provoke backlash from China and Russia. China and Russia are essential countries for making substantial progress in North Korea’s denuclearization.

Regarding this, a source said, "The NCG is entirely focused on responding to North Korea’s nuclear weapons and delivery systems and is not aimed at China or others," emphasizing, "Even if a Korea-US-Japan trilateral consultative body is formed in the future, its purpose is to enhance the effectiveness of the US extended deterrence against North Korea’s nuclear threat."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.