"China's 12-inch Wafer Production Capacity to Surpass Korea in 4 Years... Likely to Lose Top Spot Due to Memory Slump"

International Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Association (SEMI) Forecast Announcement

It is forecasted that by 2026, the production capacity (capability) of 300-millimeter (mm) wafer semiconductor manufacturing plants (fabs) will increase to 9.6 million wafers per month. While South Korea's capacity share is gradually decreasing, China's share is expected to increase, reversing the rankings.

The Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) projected this, stating that major domestic and international semiconductor companies plan to expand their 300mm fab capacity. According to SEMI, a total of 82 new production facilities will be operational by 2026, including domestic companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as well as major overseas firms like Intel and Micron from the United States, Kioxia from Japan, and TSMC and UMC from Taiwan.

Round wafers are categorized by size, such as 200mm (8 inches) and 300mm (12 inches). Since larger wafer sizes allow for the production of a greater number of semiconductor chips, 300mm wafers are primarily used.

SEMI noted that although the growth of 300mm fab capacity is sluggish this year due to reduced demand for memory and system semiconductors, it is expected to continue increasing in the future. Ajit Manocha, SEMI's Chief Executive Officer (CEO), predicted that "especially the foundry (semiconductor contract manufacturing), memory, and power semiconductor sectors will be the main growth drivers."

Yearly Growth Rate of 300mm Fab Production Capacity Graph / [Image provided by SEMI]

China is expected to continue government investments to expand 300mm fab capacity in the front-end process amid U.S. containment efforts. China's global capacity share could increase from 22% last year to 25% by 2026. This would enable the processing of 2.4 million wafers per month.

South Korea's share may decrease from 25% to 23% during the same period due to weak demand in the memory market, ranking second after China. Taiwan's share is expected to decline from 22% to 21%, and Japan's from 13% to 12%, placing them third and fourth respectively, according to SEMI.

North America, Europe, and the Middle East regions may see an increase in capacity share due to rising demand for automotive semiconductors and increased government investments. North America's share is projected to rise to 9% by 2026, and Europe and the Middle East to 7%. Southeast Asia will maintain a 4% share.

SEMI stated, "The analog and power semiconductor market size is expected to grow at an annual average rate of 30%, showing outstanding growth," adding that "foundry will grow by 12%, optical semiconductors by 6%, and memory by 4%."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.