[So Jongseop's Sokterview] Professor Jeon Youngsoo "President Must Take Direct Action on Population Issues"

Local Crisis Already Started, Spread to Capital Area Is Only a Matter of Time
Need to Consider Utilizing Female and Elderly Workforce, Immigration Comes After
Strengthening Decentralization by Granting Authority and Budget to Local Governments Also Necessary

Population cliff, population earthquake, population disaster... This is not a story about another country. It is not a scenario set in the distant future. It is about our country, right now. For 10 consecutive years, South Korea has recorded the lowest total fertility rate (the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime) among OECD countries. As of 2022, the total fertility rate was 0.78, and South Korea is the only OECD country with a fertility rate below 1.

The world, which was amazed by South Korea's rapid economic growth described as the 'Miracle on the Han River,' is now again astonished by the country's extremely low birthrate. The government is busy gathering opinions to announce a comprehensive low birthrate countermeasure plan within this month. Why, despite pouring in 280 trillion won over the past 16 years, have we not been able to escape the bottom rank in fertility rates? To answer this question, we met with population expert Professor Jeon Young-su from Hanyang University Graduate School of International Studies on March 2.

Why is the population issue important?

I say population is everything. Changes in population structure did not happen overnight but accumulated over a long period, now erupting into a problem. From the perspective of driving social change or deepening outcomes, population is everything.

Previously, population was viewed mainly as the subject of production. Attention was focused on labor as a resource and the supply of productive workforce. From that perspective, as fertility rates declined, we reached a deadline. Discussions about immigration also started from this supply-side fixed idea that bringing in foreigners is necessary because resources are decreasing, which is bad for society.

However, from the standpoint of ordinary households, this issue may not seem very significant. Paradoxically, the immediate concern is likely to be companies. This is because the very base of economic activity that has sustained society is shrinking. Recently, attention has shifted to the demand side. When you consider this aspect, the ripple effects widen significantly.

Professor Jeon Young-su of Hanyang University Graduate School of International Studies diagnosed, "The population crisis has already begun." Photo by Younghan Heo younghan@

Has the demand side not been reached yet?

It is now being reached. In the 1970s, the annual number of births exceeded 1 million. Last year, it was 248,000?only a quarter of that. The core of demand is local universities. Not only private universities but also regional national universities are failing to recruit freshmen. Some departments cannot fill their quotas. As the absolute population decreases and students avoid local universities to head to the metropolitan area, social outflow occurs. In local areas, the crisis on the demand side is strongly felt. The crisis has already begun. The economic structure itself has started to shake. The spread to the metropolitan area is only a matter of time. Our future already lies on one side. Viewing the issue solely as a Seoul problem makes it unsolvable.

Companies must feel particularly sensitive to this.

Large corporations have been proactively innovating, introducing robots, and moving ahead. However, small and medium enterprises face severe mismatches. Jobs overflow, but they cannot hire people. They are substituting with foreign industrial trainees. While it is not yet said that Korean society cannot function due to labor shortages, this situation will not last long. The shock is very likely to intensify.

How would you metaphorically express the seriousness of the population problem?

The causes of the population problem are diverse. Since it is not a policy that yields immediate results, it tends to be neglected or postponed. It is an issue connected to generational policies and values. It takes more than one generation. Will raising the fertility rate alone solve the problem? That stage has already passed. Seeking solutions in that way is an outdated approach. Prioritizing immigration that is 'non-residential and non-settling' just to import labor is an administrative convenience mindset.

I call it 'complete combustion' (완전연소), meaning whether we truly lack working people and economically active population internally. Even regarding female labor, we have not achieved complete combustion within ourselves, so why try to bring people only from abroad? The elderly population can also be sufficiently utilized. Do we dismiss people just because they are 65 to 70 years old? That wastes skilled experience and know-how.

Some say the problem lies with the 2030 generation.

The diagnosis of the root cause of the population problem is inaccurate. The main subjects are the 20s and 30s generations, but their voices are not heard. Instead, 50s and 60s vested interests sit and decide what would be good for them, leading to a situation that is completely mismatched from the perspective of the 20s and 30s. We need a change in thinking. We must show younger generations a vision where they can catch up with and surpass older generations. It is wrong to blame them for delaying or giving up childbirth.

The current fertility rate is 0.78; how low could it go?

Originally, demography assumed that a fertility rate below 1.3 rarely occurs under normal circumstances. This is called the population crisis line. South Korea has now dropped to 0.78. What does this mean? Below 1.3 was once in the realm of imagination. Now that we have gone beyond imagination, it is no longer surprising if it falls even further.

Why has the fertility rate continued to decline despite the government spending over 280 trillion won?

First, check the facts. Did the government really spend that much? It is unlikely. They probably attached related budgets to emphasize the importance of childbirth. More importantly, were those funds really spent on childbirth promotion measures?

Growth strategy comes first. Countries that experienced rapid population changes all found breakthroughs. A representative example is Germany’s Industry 4.0 under the Merkel government. Japan’s Abe Society 2.0 is similar. They do not rely solely on mothers to raise children. Husbands and society raise children. In Korea, there is a large gap between systems and reality. Now, a comprehensive approach covering both depth and breadth is necessary. It is outdated for a small group of people to handle policies. They tried to see the whole through small parts. While necessary, that is not the end. It is not enough to just give money; we must win hearts. The Ministry of Health and Welfare is not at fault.

Then how should things change?

The president must be the control tower. The president must take action. Experts should not just gather and discuss but also participate in budget and policy decisions. The president must directly oversee the organization with budget execution authority for change to happen.

Professor Jeon Young-su advocated strengthening local autonomy as a policy task to solve population issues. Photo by Heo Young-han younghan@

Is there any foreign country we can benchmark?

There is none. Each country has its own way developed over a long time. Bringing their cases here will not work. The design methods and the people involved are different. We must create our own model.

If so, what policy changes are required to solve the population problem?

Decentralization is necessary. There is a saying that local areas cannot lay eggs because there is no food, and Seoul cannot lay eggs because there is no nest. Balance is needed, but imbalance is increasing. 52% of people live in 12% of the metropolitan area space. The registered population is like that, but the actual number living in the metropolitan area is probably higher.

Among 229 local governments, 114 are extinction zones. Authority and budget must be significantly delegated to local governments. This will rebuild local governments’ survival capacity and circular economy to create sustainable jobs and housing. Recent amendments to the Balanced Development of Urban and Rural Areas Act, the enactment of the Special Development Act for Population Declining Areas, and the introduction of the Hometown Love Donation system are good steps. We just need to show that local models can be happier than Seoul’s. Decentralization is the most important.

To raise the total fertility rate, what target should be set?

Raising it is already late. It is not a reversal but mitigation. Adaptation within mitigation is important. If a target is set, it should not be a simple slogan but include concrete measures to reach it.

What about companies stepping up regarding childbirth issues?

The population problem has become what it is due to government failure. Now companies must take responsibility. Until now, companies have only been bystanders, deliberately ignoring the issue. That can no longer continue. The government should acknowledge its fundamental difficulty and create an environment where companies can emerge as key problem solvers.

Imagination is needed. We have surpassed the level of learning from abroad. It is time to combine existing elements in new ways. Let’s try involving markets and companies. Let’s do the content, actors, and methods in a Korean style.

[Who is Professor Jeon Young-su?]

He is a socioeconomist studying social change through population statistics and generational analysis. He earned his Ph.D. from Hanyang University, served as a visiting professor at Keio University in Japan, and is currently a professor at Hanyang University Graduate School of International Studies. He regularly writes columns on population and economy for various media. His books include Population Trends in the Republic of Korea 2022-2027, The Future of Population and Consumption in Korea, Korea is Disappearing, and The Poverty Report of the Retirement Nation.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.