[Inside Chodong] Russia's Demographic Cliff Worsened by War

Demographic Cliff Deepened by Nazi Germany's Invasion in WWII
Falling Birth Rate Since the 1990s, Ukraine War Drives It Even Lower

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] As the Ukraine war marks its first anniversary, the international community's attention is focused on how long Russia can continue this war. In particular, Western intelligence agencies, including those of the United States, predict that the longer the war drags on, Russia will face greater difficulties in maintaining its troops even before issues with weapons and military supplies arise.

On the 22nd (local time), Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, attended and delivered a speech at a commemorative event held in Moscow to mark the 'Defender of the Fatherland Day.' Moscow=Photo by TASS and Yonhap News

This is closely related to Russia's 'Demographic Cliff' problem. Russia, where the demographic cliff phenomenon?meaning a sharp decline in the working-age population (ages 15-64)?is already severe, is feared to experience a rapid population decrease as a significant portion of its young and middle-aged men are deployed to the Ukraine war.

The origin of Russia's demographic cliff problem dates back to World War II in the 1940s. The Soviet Union, which faced a massive invasion by Nazi Germany, lost more than 20 million people out of a population of about 100 million during the war. After the war, the number of men in Russia was less than half that of women, and the huge human loss that occurred then has been difficult to recover from.

Russia's population growth, which had barely shown signs of recovery through various postwar population support policies, began to decline again after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. This was due to a sharp drop in birth rates amid more than a decade of political and economic turmoil. The reason why the number of people born between the early 1990s and the 2000s is the smallest in Russia's current population also stems from this period.

As a result, Russia's total fertility rate announced by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 2020, before the outbreak of the Ukraine war, was 1.50, lower than Western countries such as the United States (1.64), the United Kingdom (1.56), and Germany (1.53). Russia faced population shortage issues much earlier than major developed countries where economic development and low birth rates caused a sharp decline in fertility rates.

The current Ukraine war has further steepened Russia's already serious demographic cliff problem. More than 130,000 casualties have occurred among Russian troops participating in the Ukraine war, and an additional 300,000 reserve men were conscripted under the partial mobilization order announced in September last year. Moreover, about 500,000 men fled to other countries to avoid conscription. Nearly one million adult men have vanished overnight from the production workforce.

Because of this, even the Russian government now forecasts that Russia's birth rate will decrease by about 12 to 17% compared to before this year. Although the total number of men available for mobilization is said to be 25 million, if further conscription occurs among them, it will become difficult even to operate military supply production factories.

Of course, Ukraine, with a smaller population than Russia, is in a much more serious situation. Its population, which was 44 million before the war, has already decreased to about 27 million due to war casualties and emigration abroad, and it is barely maintaining the front lines by conscripting more than 500,000 people. If the war continues this year, even women will have to participate on the front lines.

Ultimately, it is expected that the side whose most important resource?this 'human resource'?is depleted first will lay down arms and voluntarily open the negotiation table. Both countries know that if a demographic cliff occurs with too many casualties to recover from, whichever side wins, it will end as a hollow victory.

On the other hand, this also reminds countries that are one step away from the war of the seriousness of the low birth rate problem. It clearly shows that this is not simply a mid- to long-term economic and social contraction issue but a matter directly related to the survival of the nation right before their eyes.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.