[Insight & Opinion] Preventing a "Black Elephant" Cremation Crisis

[Asia Economy] It is often said that the future is becoming uncertain, but there are cases where people fail to prepare even when the future is clearly visible. Thomas Friedman, a New York Times columnist, explains this phenomenon with the term "Black Elephant." A "Black Elephant" refers to a situation where the future is highly likely and its impact can be sufficiently predicted, yet the phenomenon itself is deliberately ignored. The issue of carbon reduction to mitigate climate change is a prime example. We are well aware that humanity could face catastrophic disasters due to climate change. However, meaningful progress on carbon reduction has been stalled due to sharply conflicting interests among countries.

In South Korea, many Black Elephant phenomena exist related to demographic changes. A representative example is pension reform. Despite the clear prospect of pension depletion due to accelerating low birth rates and aging, meaningful pension reform has been difficult to achieve because of conflicting interests.

Our society is currently facing another Black Elephant phenomenon caused by aging. According to data released by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety on the 15th of this month, South Korea’s population has declined for three consecutive years. What deserves attention here is that the number of deaths has increased significantly compared to previous years. In 2020, the number of deaths in South Korea exceeded the number of births. In 2022, the number of deaths reached 372,631, an increase of 54,208 from the previous year, and this year the number of deaths is expected to exceed 400,000. It is projected to reach 500,000 in the 2030s and 600,000 to 700,000 annually after the 2040s.

As the number of deaths increases, the most concerning issue is the shortage of cremation facilities. South Korea’s funeral culture has rapidly shifted from burial to cremation. According to the Ministry of Health and Welfare’s annual cremation rate statistics, the nationwide cremation rate reached 88.4% in 2019, with the rate exceeding 90% in the Seoul metropolitan area. As of 2022, there are 60 cremation facilities nationwide (with 376 cremators), and in Seoul, there are only two facilities (34 cremators). Currently, one cremator serves approximately 140,000 people nationwide.

Even now, if someone suddenly dies in the Seoul area, it is difficult to book a crematorium, so people sometimes use crematoriums in other regions. Recently, due to the resurgence of COVID-19, the number of deaths surged, causing a temporary cremation crisis. The government has recognized the seriousness of this issue and discussed plans to improve cremation facilities. However, expanding crematoriums is expected to be difficult. Crematoriums are a typical example of a disliked facility. Who would be happy to have a crematorium in their residential area? Besides the drop in land and housing prices, no one would like the black smoke and acrid smell coming from crematorium chimneys.

The increase in deaths and the shortage of crematoriums represent a foretold future and a "Black Elephant" that is being ignored despite awareness of the problem. If no measures are taken, we may face a cremation crisis in the near future. Therefore, various alternatives must be considered now. If new crematorium installations are difficult due to location conflicts, options such as expanding cremators at existing facilities and shortening cremation times can be explored. Additionally, a new funeral method called "Bingjang (ice burial)" should also be considered. Above all, in the era of high mortality, it is essential to recognize funeral facilities as essential infrastructure and gather wisdom to ease conflicts.

Seoyongseok, Professor at KAIST Graduate School of Future Strategy

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.