[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea's ICBM 'Has a Long Way to Go'... Three Remaining Challenges

Unverified Issues Including Atmospheric Reentry, Post-Propulsion, and Transportation Means

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, took his young daughter to the launch site of the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and promoted the message that the Hwasong-17 has achieved stability as a strategic weapon. This implies that the weapon system is reliable enough to be observed by his young daughter. However, experts evaluate that North Korea still has a long way to go to complete its ICBM.

North Korea stated that the test launch of the Hwasong-17 was conducted "with the purpose of inspecting the reliability and operational trustworthiness of the weapon system." In the context of weapon system operation, "inspection" refers to testing the performance of an already developed weapon, and North Korea’s designation of this launch as an "inspection" also carries the implication of showcasing "mass production."

For North Korea to succeed in developing the Hwasong-17 ICBM, it must first possess atmospheric re-entry technology. Atmospheric re-entry technology refers to the capability of the warhead to withstand extreme heat of approximately 6000 to 7000℃ when re-entering the atmosphere.

However, North Korea conducted a high-angle test launch this time. To verify atmospheric re-entry, the missile must be launched at a normal angle and travel a long distance, and verification through a high-angle launch is limited. Due to North Korea’s geographical characteristics, the space to launch an ICBM at a normal angle would be over the Pacific Ocean.

The warhead launched at a high angle falls almost vertically during re-entry. A warhead launched at a normal angle enters the atmosphere obliquely, flying for a longer time and receiving much more heat, so the conditions are fundamentally different, making atmospheric re-entry verification via high-angle launch largely meaningless.

Moreover, to complete atmospheric re-entry verification, the warhead must be recovered at the impact site to inspect how much load it endured, the heat it absorbed, and whether the warhead’s tip was uniformly abraded. North Korea has no way to recover warheads that fell into Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Lee Chun-geun, Honorary Research Fellow at the Science and Technology Policy Institute, also said, "Since this was a high-angle launch, the re-entry situation probably was not clearly observed," adding, "They need to continue multiple launches to secure reliability before deployment," suggesting the possibility of additional launches.

It appears that North Korea has not secured the Post Boost Vehicle (PBV) technology, which is essential for developing multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) ICBMs. After launch, the ICBM separates the PBV containing the warheads in space, and the rocket attached to the PBV ignites to control and carry the warheads to the target area.

In the past, a PBV was identified on the warhead section of the Hwasong-17, but due to North Korea’s geographical issues, it has never been properly verified. It is necessary to confirm how individual warheads are deployed by the PBV after long-distance flight, but such a flight has never been conducted.

There is also an observation that it is somewhat early to operate a small number of ICBMs distributed across various units or bases while maintaining a launch-ready status. Furthermore, North Korea’s exclusive conduct of ICBM test launches from Pyongyang Sunan is because it is difficult to move ICBMs far from the assembly facility near Sunan, leading to analysis that deploying ICBMs to other units is still a long way off.

A military official stated, "The key is not simply whether there is a unit or a launch base prepared, but whether the ICBM has actually been deployed," adding, "This is still an uncertain matter."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.