'Korean Peninsula Security' Spurs Korea-US-Japan Unity... How Will Buk React?

US Followed by Japan Sharing North Korea Missile Info in Real Time
GSOMIA Normalization...Will Korea-Japan Military Cooperation Expand?
US Reaffirms 'Deterrence of North Korea Across All Categories Including Nuclear'

Forces participating in the Korea-US-Japan anti-submarine warfare exercise are conducting maneuver training in the East Sea international waters. [Photo by the Navy]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Hee-jun] The leaders of South Korea, the United States, and Japan have agreed to strengthen comprehensive cooperation through a shared security link concerning North Korea's nuclear and missile threats. The joint statement issued at this summit is regarded as a significant change in the security situation on the Korean Peninsula, as it includes more concrete action items, such as sharing North Korean missile information with Japan in real time.

As cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan solidifies, it is expected to exert considerable pressure on the opposing bloc of North Korea, China, and Russia. Especially, with direct checks on China across security and economic sectors, it is anticipated that North Korea will find it difficult to immediately resort to nuclear testing. Some voices express concerns about the acceleration of a new Cold War system due to the strengthening of South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation.

On the 13th (local time), President Yoon Suk-yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida agreed to further tighten trilateral solidarity in the 'Phnom Penh Statement on the Indo-Pacific Trilateral Partnership among South Korea, the United States, and Japan,' announced at the trilateral summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

As a specific cooperation measure, the three leaders proposed the practical task of "sharing North Korean missile warning information in real time to enhance each country's detection and assessment capabilities against threats caused by incoming missiles, marking a significant advancement for deterrence, peace, and stability."

Sharing North Korean Missile Information... Opening the Path for South Korea-Japan Military Cooperation?

President Yoon Suk-yeol is speaking at the Korea-US-Japan summit held at a hotel in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, on the 13th (local time). [Image source=Yonhap News]

Currently, South Korea and the U.S. share North Korean missile information in real time, but cooperation between South Korea and Japan on North Korean nuclear and missile information is conducted on a mutual request basis under the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA). Previously, during the Moon Jae-in administration, amid South Korea-Japan conflicts triggered by Japan's export restrictions, South Korea notified Japan in August 2019 of its intention to terminate GSOMIA as a card to pressure Japan, but the notification's effect was suspended due to U.S. pressure. Although information is exchanged through GSOMIA, its legal status remains unstable.

The decision at this summit to share North Korean missile warning information in real time between South Korea and Japan is analyzed as a sign of 'GSOMIA normalization.' Furthermore, it is also seen as opening the door to expanding military cooperation between South Korea and Japan. The choice to share information among the three leaders is also interpreted as reflecting the recognition that North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) have reached a level threatening the Pacific territories of Guam and Hawaii, and even the U.S. mainland.

Since the Yoon Suk-yeol administration took office, the trilateral partnership among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan has steadily strengthened security cooperation based on the shared threat of North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities. In June this year, they agreed to regularize and publicly conduct missile warning drills and ballistic missile detection and tracking exercises, and at the end of September, the three countries conducted joint anti-submarine warfare drills in the East Sea. This summit further agreed on real-time information sharing.

A military official evaluated, "The specific scope of real-time information sharing will be determined through discussions between the South Korean and Japanese military authorities. Even if it is only partial warning information, it can be seen as a significant step forward in South Korea-Japan information cooperation."

Moon Hong-sik, Deputy Spokesperson of the Ministry of National Defense, also said at the regular briefing that day, "If the three countries cooperate, it will be possible to share more accurate North Korean missile information," adding, "Discussions will not favor any one party, and will proceed in a way that benefits all three countries."

Strengthening U.S. Extended Deterrence... Increased Frequency of Strategic Asset Deployments Expected

US Air Force Strategic Bomber B-1B

It was also reaffirmed that the U.S. extended deterrence commitment will be further strengthened. The U.S.'s deterrence against North Korea is virtually the only means to respond to North Korea's nuclear weapon threats, and this reaffirmation appears to demonstrate the U.S.'s intention to alleviate concerns from South Korea and Japan.

North Korea has recently accelerated the development of various weapons, including tactical nuclear delivery systems, and has adopted an aggressive nuclear policy that could use nuclear weapons for preemptive strikes targeting South Korea. This spring, it completed physical preparations for a seventh nuclear test, leaving only the political decision on timing.

According to the joint statement adopted that day, President Biden reiterated that the U.S. defense commitments to South Korea and Japan are ironclad and supported by defense capabilities across all categories, including nuclear weapons. Specifying extended deterrence means as "defense capabilities across all categories, including nuclear weapons" is interpreted as an effort to address South Korea and Japan's concerns that nuclear retaliation might be avoided in response to low-yield nuclear attacks by North Korea and to prevent miscalculations by North Korea.

A military official evaluated, "As North Korea's threats escalate day by day, it was reaffirmed that the U.S. extended deterrence commitment will be strengthened," adding, "This serves to instill trust in the alliance and to prevent North Korea from misjudging the U.S.'s response intentions."

Following the 'united front' of the three leaders, the deployment and frequency and level of dispatch of U.S. strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula and its surroundings are also expected to increase. The policy to strengthen the deployment of U.S. strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula to be equivalent to 'permanent stationing' was agreed upon earlier this month at the 54th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) between South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

In particular, there is speculation that trilateral military exercises among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan centered on strategic assets may take place. The government currently participates in humanitarian search and rescue exercises with Japan but maintains a negative stance toward other military exercises. However, with real-time sharing of North Korean missile information with Japan, it is anticipated that exercises involving military means such as warships and fighter jets could become possible.

Strengthened Checks on China Following North Korea... "Nuclear Test Unlikely in the Near Term"

Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea [Image source=Yonhap News]

Experts analyze the joint statement as formalizing cooperation across all domains among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan as key countries in the Indo-Pacific strategy. It contains a message to strengthen cooperation in other fields through the shared security link of North Korea's nuclear and missile threats, while strongly pressuring China and Russia.

Professor Jung Young-tae, Chair Professor at Dongyang University, said, "President Yoon's announcement of the 'Korean version of the Indo-Pacific strategy' before the summit signifies a move away from the previous administration's ambiguous strategy toward a more proactive role," adding, "It is meaningful that the three countries formed a consensus on current issues based on the shared threat of North Korea." In fact, during this series of meetings, the U.S. and South Korea discussed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and South Korea and Japan addressed the forced labor compensation issue.

With increased pressure on North Korea, China, and Russia, especially China, there is a view that North Korea will find it difficult to conduct a nuclear test in the near future. North Korea is expected to continue small-scale provocations such as ballistic missile launches while observing the outcomes of the G20 summit. Subsequently, it is anticipated to weigh the possibility of launching intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

Yang Moo-jin, President of the University of North Korean Studies, analyzed, "Through this tour, South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation has become more solid," adding, "Criticizing Russia's war in Ukraine and directly mentioning China's South China Sea issues marks progress beyond previous positions." However, he pointed out, "As long as U.S.-China conflicts continue, the environment allowing North Korea to continue nuclear and missile development persists," and "While North Korea's provocations may be temporarily halted, it will be difficult to bring about fundamental changes in attitude."

Some express concerns about the acceleration of a new Cold War system due to the strengthening of South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation. Kim Yong-hyun, Professor of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University, said, "Strengthening the South Korea-U.S. alliance based on security is desirable, but cooperation with China is also essential in terms of North Korea and economic aspects," advising, "Rather than solidifying a conflict phase by leaning toward one camp, diplomatic flexibility should be maintained while prioritizing national interests."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.