North Raises Provocation Level... Possible Seongdonggyeokseo-Style Provocation

Possibility of Various Provocations to Expand International Standing Ahead of 7th Nuclear Test
Frontline Field Units Activate Crisis Response Mechanisms... Enter 24-Hour Overnight Duty

[Asia Economy reporters Inho Yoo, military specialist Nakgyu Yang, and Heejun Jang] North Korea’s continuation of missile provocations for two consecutive days is analyzed as provocations aimed at building justification while already preparing ‘enhanced measures.’ It signifies their intention to gradually expand their position in the international community before pressing the button for the seventh nuclear test, which is virtually their last card. They may shorten the intervals between provocations and diversify the methods, conducting surprise attacks to select the optimal timing for a nuclear test.

Professor Won-gon Park of the Department of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University analyzed on the 3rd, “Looking at the series of provocations, North Korea’s ultimate goal is to be recognized as a nuclear-armed state and then negotiate directly with the United States.”

Since the Yoon Seok-yeol administration took office, North Korea has gradually escalated the level of provocations. In May, right after U.S. President Joe Biden completed his visit to South Korea and was returning home, North Korea fired three ballistic missiles, including an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). In September, on the day the U.S. 7th Fleet’s nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) and its carrier strike group entered Busan, North Korea launched short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), disregarding major South Korea-U.S. events. During the joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises that same month, North Korea fired two SRBMs into the East Sea, and on the day U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris visited the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), they launched two additional SRBMs.

North Korea has raised the level of provocations to an all-around scale, including at sea. Last month, about ten North Korean military aircraft flew simultaneously in threatening patterns below South Korea’s tactical line on both the eastern and western fronts late at night. To build justification for high-intensity localized provocations, they also suddenly sent a merchant ship south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL). Earlier this month, for the first time since the division of Korea, North Korea crossed the Northern Limit Line in the East Sea and launched short-range ballistic missiles.

It is expected that North Korea will continue to escalate provocations in various ways. On the 24th of last month, North Korea’s General Staff spokesperson issued a statement “sternly warning against loudspeaker provocations.” There is a high possibility of provocations at the DMZ or guard posts (GPs). It is already known that preparations are underway at the Dongchang-ri West Sea Satellite Launching Station to launch an ICBM, and they may conduct an ICBM test launch ahead of the seventh nuclear test. Since North Korea legalized ‘preemptive nuclear strikes’ in September, concerns have arisen that they might fly an ICBM over the Korean Peninsula.

Experts predict that North Korea will continuously escalate provocations, culminating in the ‘seventh nuclear test.’ Ahead of the U.S. midterm elections on the 8th, there is a possibility of an ICBM test launch directly threatening the U.S. mainland or military clashes similar to the November 2010 Yeonpyeong Island shelling.

Professor Mujin Yang of the University of North Korean Studies said, “If North Korea launches medium- and long-range missiles, including ICBMs, it means they intend to conduct nuclear tests on two tracks: tactical nuclear weapons aimed at South Korea and strategic nuclear weapons targeting the U.S. mainland.” He added, “The specific timing will likely be decided after escalating provocations to influence the U.S. midterm elections, and the possibility of localized provocations remains open during this process.” Professor Park also predicted, “After carrying out complex missile provocations, they will eventually proceed to the seventh nuclear test.”

As North Korea’s provocations continue, South Korean military authorities are also on high alert. The military recently activated crisis response mechanisms even in frontline field units and began 24-hour overnight duty. Maintaining a 24-hour emergency response system down to frontline units is the first since the Yoon administration took office. Alongside this, on the 3rd (local time), the Ministry of National Defense held the 54th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) with the U.S. side in Washington D.C., discussing ▲assessment of the security situation on the Korean Peninsula and policy coordination ▲enhancement of extended deterrence capabilities ▲strengthening of combined defense posture ▲global security cooperation and other key alliance issues. In particular, the South Korea-U.S. defense ministers plan to discuss ways to substantially strengthen the U.S. extended deterrence capabilities at the SCM. It is reported that the joint SCM statement may include new measures for the deployment and operation of U.S. strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is also considering additional sanctions against North Korea. On the day, Foreign Minister Jin Park, after a breakfast meeting with former Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso at a hotel in Seoul, told reporters, when asked if they were considering additional independent sanctions against North Korea, “I will attend the National Security Council to discuss the specific situation and prepare countermeasures.” Minister Park added, “We have various preparations in place. We will first assess the extent of North Korea’s provocations and then decide.” Before attending the breakfast, he also emphasized, “We absolutely cannot tolerate North Korea escalating threats like this,” and “It is necessary to maintain strong defense capabilities to deter provocations.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.