Mu-hyup "US Midterm Elections, Despite Republican Win and Loss of Momentum, China Containment Likely to Continue"

"IPEF Push May Encounter Setbacks"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Moon Chaeseok] An analysis has emerged that even if the Republican Party (opposition) gains the majority status in Congress in the U.S. midterm elections, which are just a week away, there will be no change in trade policies aimed at checking China.

On the 1st, the Korea International Trade Association's International Trade and Commerce Research Institute released a report titled "2022 U.S. Midterm Election Outlook" containing this information.

The report forecasted a high possibility that the Republican Party will regain majority status in the U.S. midterm elections to be held on the 8th (local time). However, it noted that it is difficult to predict the outcome as the Democratic Party's approval ratings are recovering due to the federal Supreme Court's ruling against abortion rights and the Biden administration's economic stimulus policies.

The report anticipated that if the Republican Party secures the majority, President Biden will likely have to block congressional legislation with veto power and rely on executive orders, making policy implementation less smooth.

It diagnosed that there will be no significant changes in the China policy and U.S.-centric trade policies that have been maintained since the Donald Trump administration.

Cho Sanghyun, head of the Korea International Trade Association's International Trade and Commerce Research Institute, stated, "If the Republican Party gains majority status in Congress, the Biden administration's policy momentum may weaken." He explained, "In terms of trade policy, there may be little change on bipartisan-supported issues such as checking China. However, there could be setbacks in advancing trade agreements like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), which the Republican Party holds a negative stance toward."

Professor Lee Hyoyoung of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy evaluated during a webinar hosted by the Korea International Trade Association on the same day under the theme "U.S. Midterm Election Outlook and Impact," that "Since the Biden administration's recent domestic economic policy moves have focused on winning votes, the intensity of U.S.-China conflicts may increase further after the midterm elections, and global geopolitical crises could deepen."

In the midterm elections, the U.S. will elect 35 federal senators (out of 100 seats), 435 House representatives (all 435 seats), and governors of 36 states (out of 50 states). Currently, the Democratic Party holds the majority in both the Senate and the House. Since the two parties are fiercely competing in states such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the majority status in the Senate is expected to be determined based on the election results in these states.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.