North's Late-Night Continuous Provocations... "Turning Point for the 9·19 Military Agreement Termination"

Violation of 9·19 Military Agreement by North Korean Artillery Fire
Ruling Party Supports 'Termination Theory'... Opposition Avoids Direct Response
"Termination Not Possible Under Current Law, Only Suspension with Set Deadline Possible"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporters Jang Hee-jun and Lee Ji-eun] North Korea's indiscriminate provocations have violated the September 19 military agreement, further escalating military tensions. Following demonstrations of nuclear delivery capabilities through short-range and medium-range ballistic missile and cruise missile launches, North Korea has diversified its provocations with threat flights and multiple rocket launcher firings, deepening concerns over how to respond. In particular, there is analysis that the September 19 military agreement between South and North Korea, regarded as one of the Moon Jae-in administration's greatest achievements, now stands at a crossroads due to North Korea's indiscriminate simultaneous provocations.

According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff on the 14th, North Korea conducted artillery fire from around 1:20 a.m. to 1:25 a.m. near Majang-dong, Hwanghae Province, firing about 130 rounds into the West Sea, and from around 2:57 a.m. to 3:07 a.m. near Gu-eup-ri, Gangwon Province, firing about 40 rounds into the East Sea. The impact points were within the northern buffer zones of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the East and West Seas, as stipulated by the September 19 agreement. The military agreement prohibits maritime firing or training within the buffer zones.

Many view North Korea's successive provocations as an attempt to assert its presence on the international stage. Especially, violating the September 19 military agreement is seen as a message to the South Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation that North Korea will not be outmatched and intends to take the lead.

Kim Yong-hyun, a professor in North Korean Studies at Dongguk University, explained, "The current situation on the Korean Peninsula is escalating in a tit-for-tat manner, with North Korea provoking and South Korea, the U.S., and Japan responding, leading to a hardening standoff. However, it seems North Korea aims to highlight its presence externally by provoking South Korea without escalating to an extreme situation."

The September 19 military agreement is a supplementary agreement to the September 19 Pyongyang Joint Declaration announced in September 2018 during the Moon Jae-in administration. Its formal name is the "Panmunjom Declaration Military Domain Implementation Agreement." Its purpose is to prevent accidental military clashes in border areas, establishing no-fly zones, prohibitions on artillery firing and outdoor maneuvers at the regimental level or higher, and buffer zones based on the Military Demarcation Line (MDL).

However, this provocation has increased the likelihood of the September 19 agreement being annulled. North Korea blatantly showed its disregard for the spirit and intent of the military agreement by simultaneously conducting multiple rocket launcher firings and short-range ballistic missile launches, which violate United Nations Security Council resolutions.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Already, within the ruling party, there is growing public opinion that the agreement needs to be revised as the possibility of its termination has been suggested. The People Power Party, through Chief Spokesperson Yang Geum-hee, stated, "North Korea has completely trampled on the September 19 military agreement," adding, "If North Korea proceeds with a seventh nuclear test, it will have crossed the 'red line,' and we must seriously reconsider the continuation of the Korean Peninsula denuclearization declaration and the September 19 agreement."

President Yoon Suk-yeol, on his way to the Yongsan Presidential Office building that morning, was asked, "North Korea's multiple rocket launcher firing today explicitly breaks the September 19 military agreement. What is your view?" He replied, "We are reviewing everything one by one," which was interpreted as indicating that the effectiveness of the September 19 military agreement is under consideration.

The Democratic Party avoided giving a direct answer regarding the violation of the September 19 agreement but criticized the government and ruling party over the loss of tracking signals for the ground-to-ground ballistic missile ATACMS. Spokesperson Lim Oh-kyung said to reporters after the Supreme Council meeting, "The truth about ballistic missiles is emerging through the audit," adding, "We cannot tolerate the continuous false reports amid a situation where the lives of the people are threatened by ballistic missiles, and the government and ruling party must immediately apologize to the public."

However, a full annulment of the September 19 agreement and the Korean Peninsula denuclearization joint declaration is legally impossible under domestic law; only a suspension of effect for a specified period is possible.

According to the Act on the Development of Inter-Korean Relations, "The President may suspend all or part of the effect of inter-Korean agreements for a set period if there is a significant change in inter-Korean relations or if deemed necessary for national security, order maintenance, or public welfare."

Therefore, the President can suspend all or part of the effect of the September 19 military agreement signed in 2018 and the Korean Peninsula denuclearization joint declaration effective since 1992, but must specify the suspension period explicitly.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of National Defense announced that it sent a traditional letter of protest to North Korea regarding the simultaneous provocations carried out late at night. A Ministry of National Defense official told reporters, "At 9 a.m., through the military communication line in the West Sea area, we sent a traditional letter to North Korea under the name of the senior representative of the general-level military talks, pointing out that the multiple rocket launcher firing in the East and West Sea buffer zones early this morning violates the September 19 military agreement and urging compliance and prevention of recurrence." The senior representative of the general-level military talks is Major General Kim Sung-min, the Ministry of National Defense's Policy Planning Officer.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.