[Global Focus] Imminent Speculation on North Korea's 7th Nuclear Test Shaking the US, China, and Russia Simultaneously

North's Sequential Provocations... "Similar to the 6th Nuclear Test"
"7th Nuclear Test Likely Between China's Party Congress and US Midterm Elections"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] As suspicions arise among the US and Western intelligence agencies that North Korea's missile provocations are steps leading up to a 7th nuclear test, the international community is on edge. In particular, with North Korea conducting missile tests passing over Japanese airspace, similar to the situation just before the 6th nuclear test in 2017, there are growing concerns that the 7th nuclear test is imminent.

The fact that major political events in the US and China are taking place consecutively also increases the possibility of a surprise nuclear test. It is understood that North Korea aims to use the 7th nuclear test as a means to strengthen ties and solidarity with China and Russia, thereby inducing a more proactive US policy toward North Korea. In response, trilateral cooperation among the US, South Korea, and Japan is expected to be significantly strengthened, with forecasts of a new joint defense system being established.

◇Missile Passing Over Japanese Airspace for the First Time in 5 Years... D?j? Vu of the 6th Nuclear Test

Inside and outside the US government, analyses suggest that North Korea's launch of a medium-range ballistic missile (IRBM) on the 4th, which passed over Japanese airspace, is a threatening indication of a possible 7th nuclear test.

Patrick Ryder, spokesperson for the US Department of Defense, stated during a press briefing on the 6th (local time), "The US assesses that North Korea is preparing for a nuclear test," and emphasized, "North Korea must immediately cease actions that violate United Nations (UN) Security Council resolutions, escalate military tensions, destabilize the situation, and threaten peace and security."

Previously, North Korea began missile provocations with short-range missiles in 2017 and announced in early August of that year that it had succeeded in developing a small nuclear warhead, provoking the then Donald Trump administration. Subsequently, on August 29, ahead of the 6th nuclear test, North Korea launched the Hwasong-12 missile, which passed over Japanese airspace for the first time ever. Just a few days later, on September 3, North Korea conducted the 6th nuclear test. At that time, the UN Security Council convened and unanimously condemned North Korea's nuclear test.

Now, with North Korea launching a ballistic missile passing over Japanese airspace again after five years, analyses suggest that it has entered the preparatory phase for a nuclear test.

Gary Samore, former US White House National Security Council (NSC) coordinator for weapons of mass destruction, told Voice of America (VOA) in an interview, "North Korea has conducted successive short-range missile launches this year, followed by a test launch of a medium-range missile, and may soon proceed to intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test launches. This clearly indicates steps toward a nuclear test."

◇Optimal Timing for the 7th Nuclear Test? ... Between China's Party Congress and US Midterm Elections

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

There is also analysis that North Korea will seek the optimal timing for a nuclear test ahead of major political events in the US and China. Amid multiple simultaneous geopolitical issues, North Korea aims to leverage the nuclear test card to maximize its advantage in negotiations with the US.

According to Bloomberg News, North Korea experts from major US think tanks foresee the possibility of North Korea conducting the 7th nuclear test between China's 20th Party Congress scheduled for the 16th of this month and the US midterm elections on November 8.

China's 20th Party Congress is regarded as a significant political event where Chinese President Xi Jinping's third term is expected to be confirmed. The US midterm elections are directly linked to the Biden administration's future political leadership. By playing the nuclear test card between these two political events, North Korea could shake both the US and China simultaneously. Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, explained, "North Korea may avoid conducting a nuclear test before China's important political event as an ally, but is likely to seek the optimal timing between then and before the US midterm elections."

Given that the US government is constrained by multiple issues, it is analyzed that North Korea will highlight the nuclear test issue as an important negotiation card. Sumi Terry, director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center, said, "With the Ukraine issue and various geopolitical and political problems scattered around, the US currently does not have a satisfactory response to North Korea's moves. This geopolitical environment will work very favorably for North Korea and Kim Jong-un."

◇Unprecedented Public Support for Russian Annexation of Occupied Territories... Display of North Korea-China-Russia Solidarity

[Image source=Yonhap News]

As North Korea strengthens its solidarity with China and Russia, threatening security in Northeast Asia, the US is expected to take a more proactive stance on North Korea in cooperation with allies such as South Korea and Japan. There are also forecasts of a new security system emerging with enhanced trilateral cooperation beyond the basics.

According to TASS News Agency, Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, stated during a press briefing on the 6th, "Tensions continue as South Korea and the US conduct large-scale joint military exercises for the first time since 2017," and added, "Russia's position remains unchanged that nuclear war must never happen, and we are closely monitoring the situation."

Russia is openly siding with North Korea regarding its ballistic missile provocations. Earlier, at an emergency UN Security Council open meeting convened on the 5th to condemn North Korea's ballistic missile launch, Russia, along with China, exercised its veto power, preventing the adoption of a Security Council statement condemning North Korea.

North Korea also publicly supported Russia's annexation of occupied territories in Ukraine in an unprecedented manner. On the 4th, Jo Chol-su, director of the International Organizations Bureau at North Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated in a press release, "We respect the will of the residents of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), Luhansk People's Republic (LPR), Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions to integrate with Russia, and support the Russian government's position of incorporating these areas into its territory."

As North Korea, China, and Russia display solidarity and threaten overall security in Northeast Asia, it is expected that trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the US, and Japan will move toward establishing a stronger defense system. Daniel Snyder, a researcher at Stanford University, told Voice of America (VOA), "The current crisis situation could be an opportunity to consider an integrated missile defense system among South Korea, the US, and Japan. If realized, it would be a groundbreaking countermeasure capable of strongly deterring North Korea, China, and Russia."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.