North Korea Attempts to Neutralize Kill Chain by Changing Time and Location of Provocations

North Mentions Tactical Nuclear Unit for First Time, Targeting Hard-to-Detect Blind Spots
SLBM Reservoir Launch May Be a Diversion Tactic to Evade South Korea-US Surveillance

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korea stated that "the seven missile provocations carried out over the past two weeks were ‘training for tactical nuclear operation units.’" While North Korea has previously revealed plans for the practical deployment of tactical nuclear weapons, this is the first time it has mentioned ‘tactical nuclear operation units.’ Experts point out three distinctive features of North Korea’s recent provocations, interpreting them as an attempt to neutralize the Korea-type 3-axis system.

Among the photos released on the 10th by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency and Rodong Sinmun, the most notable is the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) fired around 6:53 a.m. on the 25th of last month from a reservoir in the Taechon County area of North Pyongan Province toward the East Sea. This is the first time North Korea has launched an SLBM from an inland reservoir rather than at sea, and on the day of the launch, military authorities gave a different explanation, estimating that it was fired from a Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) vehicle.

Until now, North Korea has tested SLBM launches in the sea and underwater near Sinpo in South Hamgyong Province, where shipyards and research institutes are concentrated. The fact that North Korea can launch SLBMs from an inland reservoir suggests that our military’s detection of North Korean SLBMs may become even more difficult.

In fact, around the 25th, when North Korea carried out provocations, our military detected certain movements in the Sinpo area and was closely monitoring them, but North Korea launched from Taechon in North Pyongan, far from Sinpo, indicating a kind of ‘decoy operation.’

SLBM Launch from Reservoir Offers Advantages of No Waves and Shallow Depth; Missile Launch Times Varied for Surveillance Checks; Unprecedented Deployment of About 150 Fighter Jets Demonstrates Bold Show of Force

Some suggest that North Korea’s SLBM may still be incomplete. A military official said, "North Korea may not yet be fully prepared to launch SLBMs at sea." Reservoirs provide a controllable environment with no waves and shallower depths compared to the sea.

Professor Jang Young-geun of the Air Force University said, "Launching from a train was something seen in old Russia, but I have never heard of an underwater launch from a reservoir," adding, "They seem to be trying to avoid showing launch signs and preparation processes."

On the 9th, a day before the 77th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party, North Korea also launched two short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea in the early dawn. The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) announced, "Between 1:48 a.m. and 1:58 a.m., North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles from the Mooncheon area (north of Wonsan) in Gangwon Province toward the East Sea."

Mooncheon is home to a naval base, and in April 2020, North Korea launched short-range cruise missiles there. North Korea’s varied choice of launch times and locations is analyzed as a demonstration of ‘customized’ launch capabilities for different strike targets. Notably, this is the first time this year that North Korea has launched ballistic missiles during late-night hours.

It is also noteworthy that North Korea unusually conducted a ‘large-scale comprehensive air attack exercise’ mobilizing all its fighter jets. On the 6th, North Korea deployed 12 military aircraft, including 8 fighters and 4 bombers, conducting formation flights and air-to-ground firing drills south of the Special Surveillance Line. Two days later, North Korea mobilized as many as 150 fighter jets for an aerial show of force, which is extremely rare. This is interpreted as a display of power aimed at internal consolidation ahead of the Workers’ Party anniversary and in preparation for the imminent 7th nuclear test by North Korea, as South Korea and the U.S. strengthen joint readiness.

However, it is known that the large-scale fighter deployment on that day did not approach south of the Special Surveillance Line as it did on the 6th. Accordingly, our Air Force did not respond but reportedly scrambled advanced fighters such as the F-35 to prepare for any accidental situations.

Ryu Seong-yeop, a senior research fellow at the 21st Century Military Research Institute, diagnosed, "The air attack training indicates that North Korea may be preparing for various forms of localized provocations beyond missile test launches," and added, "The military needs to closely monitor the background of North Korea’s information disclosures."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.