Memory Market to Worsen Next Year... DRAM Sales Expected to Decrease by 16%
TrendForce Predicts 16% Decline in DRAM Market Revenue Next Year
NAND Market Growth Also Slows After 20%+ Expansion
[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Pyeonghwa] As the semiconductor industry centered on memory semiconductors experiences a downturn, the outlook for the DRAM and NAND flash markets next year appears unfavorable.
On the 5th, market research firm TrendForce predicted in a report that the global DRAM market revenue next year will be $75.884 billion. This represents a 16.0% decline compared to this year's forecast of $90.31 billion. TrendForce also expected this year's forecast to decrease by 4.9% compared to the previous year ($94.915 billion). Unlike last year, when DRAM market revenue grew significantly by 41.6% compared to the previous year, the market is expected to continue declining from this year onward.
The NAND flash market, which along with DRAM forms the two pillars of the memory semiconductor sector, is expected to avoid negative growth but will see a slowdown in revenue growth compared to boom periods. TrendForce projected next year's NAND market revenue to be $74.66 billion, a 3.7% increase over this year's forecast of $71.98 billion. In 2020 and 2021, NAND market revenue grew substantially by 26.0% and 21.1% respectively compared to the previous years. The NAND market revenue for 2024 is expected to reach $81.52 billion, a 9.2% increase from the previous year.
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TrendForce stated that, following this year, oversupply in the memory semiconductor market will continue next year, maintaining inventory pressure. To adjust the supply-demand imbalance next year, many manufacturers will need to regulate DRAM production. Similarly, the NAND market next year is expected to see manufacturers controlling production volumes like DRAM. TrendForce noted that under these circumstances, NAND inventory pressure could ease in the second quarter of next year. They also explained that the price decline trend could moderate next year.
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