China's Newborn Count Risks Falling Below 10 Million... Is Population Decline Beginning?

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[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] It has been projected that the number of newborns in China this year will fall below the 10 million mark, potentially leading to a decline in the total population. Despite the Chinese government relaxing birth control policies and allowing families to have three children, the trend of low birth rates appears to persist due to the economic downturn.

According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun on the 16th, a survey conducted by local governments in 27 provinces this year showed a double-digit decline in birth rates in most regions.

Statistics indicate that except for Guiyang City in Guizhou Province in southwestern China, all 26 provinces experienced a decrease in the number of newborns compared to the same period last year. Among these, 22 provinces saw a double-digit drop in birth rates, with some regions experiencing a 30-40% decrease. A Communist Party official stated that although the survey covered only 1% of China's total local administrative districts, a nationwide trend of declining birth rates is being observed.

Local governments have been encouraging third-child births since May last year to curb the decline in birth rates, but these efforts have yet to show significant results. For example, Hai'an City in Jiangsu Province provides childbirth subsidies starting from the second child, and Ningbo City in Zhejiang Province has implemented policies to increase mortgage loan limits. However, the number of newborns in China last year dropped 12% from the previous year to 10.62 million, marking the lowest level since 1949.

The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that if this trend continues, the number of newborns this year could fall below 10 million, resulting in a population decline where the number of births falls below the number of deaths. As of last year, the annual number of deaths in China was 10.14 million.

The low birth rate in China is attributed to the economic downturn caused by COVID-19. The Chinese government’s lockdowns in certain cities to prevent the spread of COVID-19 have prolonged the economic slump. From January to June, China’s per capita real disposable income increased by 3.0% year-on-year, significantly slowing from last year’s growth rate of 5.2%.

Meanwhile, urban living costs, including housing, have risen, leading more people to forgo marriage and childbirth. According to Chinese government statistics, the number of marriages last year decreased by 6% compared to the previous year. Additionally, 48% of those who married were in their 30s, indicating a trend toward later marriage ages.

The Chinese government has been alert to the low birth rate phenomenon and has begun devising childcare policies, but there are criticisms that sufficient alternatives have not been presented. Earlier, the National Development and Reform Commission announced plans in August to expand daycare centers, but measures such as childcare allowances and pension reforms have not been implemented due to financial difficulties. A survey conducted last year by Southwest University of Finance and Economics revealed that most childcare households require long-term childcare policies, such as a "pension guarantee system," rather than temporary measures to encourage childbirth.

The Nihon Keizai Shimbun pointed out, "Families with children hope for a long-term reduction in childcare costs," adding, "However, the Chinese government's childcare policies are limited to temporary support during infancy, such as tax cuts and birth insurance."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.