Eastern Europe Prepares for Winter... Will the Cold Snap Support Putin? [International Issues+]

EU Fails to Agree on Russian Gas Price Cap
Eastern European Countries Oppose as They Begin Winter Preparations
Russian Gas Pressure Likely to Work if Severe Winter Hits

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] In Eastern Europe, where the average daily temperature drops sharply around Korea’s Chuseok holiday, full-scale winter preparations have begun. As Russia hinted at cutting off gas supplies in retaliation against Western sanctions and embarked on a blatant energy weaponization strategy, Eastern European countries highly dependent on Russian natural gas are becoming extremely tense.

Accordingly, global warming, which has caused abnormal weather events worldwide this year, has emerged as the biggest variable in European energy security. So far, the European region has experienced abnormally high temperatures, more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above average, so the cold is expected to start later than usual. However, if a sudden severe cold wave hits in midwinter, significant damage is feared. Additionally, if a harsh winter occurs in Northeast Asia, where competition over U.S.-produced liquefied natural gas (LNG) is already intense, Europe is also expected to face the aftershock of soaring gas prices.

EU Fails to Agree on Russian Gas Price Cap…Eastern Europe Opposes

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

According to the Associated Press on the 10th (local time), energy ministers from the 27 European Union (EU) member states held an emergency meeting in Brussels, Belgium, the previous day to discuss the introduction of a price cap on Russian natural gas but failed to reach an agreement. It is reported that Eastern European countries such as Hungary, which must prepare for winter immediately, strongly opposed the measure.

In particular, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, and others, where heating dependence on Russian natural gas exceeds 90%, clearly expressed their firm opposition to the price cap. Peter Szijjarto, Hungary’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, who attended the meeting, appealed, “If a price limit is set only on Russian natural gas, Russia may immediately cut off the gas supply.”

The reason for such strong opposition from Eastern European countries is that the average daily temperature in these regions drops rapidly from late September to early October. Until September, the average daily temperature in Eastern Europe remains around 15 to 18 degrees Celsius, but in early October, it is known to drop sharply by more than 10 degrees to 3 to 5 degrees Celsius. At this time, as demand for heating gas increases, further provoking Russia could lead to a heating crisis.

Higher Autumn Temperatures Than Usual... Sudden Cold Waves Are the Problem

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

Therefore, the biggest variable in European energy security is expected to be the average temperature this winter. According to Bloomberg, due to the effects of global warming, the average daily temperature in Europe is forecast to be 1.0 to 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than usual until October this year. However, as abnormal weather events continue to occur, the possibility of sudden cold waves is also high.

Centered on Germany, major European countries are negotiating with key gas-producing countries in the U.S., the Middle East, and Africa to achieve 100% natural gas reserves by December. So far, Europe’s overall gas reserve rate is about 72.5%, which is still far from 100%. The UK’s Guardian warned that with the current reserves, European countries can endure until February next year by implementing limited gas rationing, but after that, gas reserves will be completely depleted, potentially triggering a massive energy crisis.

Concerns are also rising that if a severe cold wave hits Northeast Asia even without a cold wave in Europe, Europe’s energy crisis could worsen. This is because the U.S.-produced LNG that Europe is importing to replace Russian natural gas has actually been imported most for heating purposes in Northeast Asia. If Europe and Northeast Asian countries compete over LNG prices, there are fears that international gas prices could skyrocket even further.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.