Why Did the 3rd-Ranked National Powers of the US and China Visit Korea Resembling Each Other?

Elderly US and China No. 3 Officials Likely to Retire Visit Korea to Strengthen Their Influence
China May Send Xi Jinping's 'Letter' for Meeting with President Yoon

[Asia Economy Senior Reporter Cho Young-shin] Li Zhanshu, the third-ranking official in China's national power hierarchy and Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (equivalent to the Speaker of the National Assembly, hereinafter Chairman), will visit South Korea for a 2-night, 3-day trip starting on the 15th. This marks the visit of China's third-ranking official to South Korea just 44 days after Nancy Pelosi, the third-ranking official in the U.S. power hierarchy and Speaker of the House (hereinafter Speaker), visited last month on the 3rd.

Photo by Xinhua News Agency Capture

Chinese state media such as Xinhua News Agency officially confirmed on the 5th that Chairman Li will visit four countries sequentially from the 7th to the 17th: Russia, Mongolia, Nepal, and South Korea. This is the first visit by China's third-ranking official to South Korea in seven years since Chairman Zhang Dejiang in June 2015.

The visit is reportedly a reciprocal visit following the invitation from National Assembly Speaker Kim Jin-pyo and Speaker Park Byeong-seok's attendance at the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics opening ceremony in February.

However, given that the visit comes less than two months after Speaker Pelosi's visit, it is interpreted as a visit aimed at countering the United States. As Speaker Pelosi toured Asian countries to demonstrate U.S. influence, China has arranged Chairman Li's overseas schedule to assert its influence in the Asian region as well.

Similar 'G2' National Assembly Speakers' Visits

Speaker Pelosi was born in 1940. At 82 years old, she is effectively nearing retirement. She is a highly influential figure in U.S. politics and is known for her strong anti-China sentiment.

Chairman Li is also approaching retirement. Born in 1950, according to the Chinese political convention of "Qishang Baha" (retirement at age 68 or older, continuation under 67), he is very likely to step down at the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in March 2023. He is also known for his anti-American stance.

Both the U.S. and China have major political events scheduled for the second half of the year, which is another similarity. The U.S. is preparing for the November midterm elections. If the ruling Democratic Party loses, President Joe Biden's leadership could be significantly weakened for the remaining two years of his term. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, which China reacts to most sensitively, is widely interpreted as a calculated political move mindful of domestic public opinion.

China is also scheduled to hold the 20th Party Congress on October 16, where Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, President of the State, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, is expected to secure a third term. There is a need to demonstrate the party leadership's diplomatic capabilities to the 1.4 billion Chinese people.

State-run Global Times reported on the 5th that Chairman Li will attend the 7th Eastern Economic Forum, where Russian President Vladimir Putin will also be present, showcasing the firm ties and close cooperation between China and Russia.

This is Chairman Li's first overseas trip in three years since September 2019. His overseas schedule to four countries after being reclusive since the outbreak of COVID-19 is seen as a calculated political move by the Chinese leadership in response to Speaker Pelosi's overseas tour.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Whether Xi Jinping's Personal Letter is Carried

The biggest point of interest in Chairman Li's visit to South Korea is whether he will hold talks with President Yoon Suk-yeol. Speaker Pelosi did not meet President Yoon during her visit, nor was there any diplomatic protocol reflecting the presidential office's sentiments. Pelosi held talks with heads of government in Singapore, Malaysia, and Japan. Regardless of the reasons, there was public criticism of Pelosi's cold treatment in South Korea, causing embarrassment for both the presidential office and the National Assembly.

Given Pelosi's precedent, it is unlikely that Chairman Li will meet President Yoon. Since Pelosi and President Yoon only had a phone call during her visit, it is expected that Chairman Li will also only have a phone call.

However, the situation could change if Chairman Li brings a personal letter from Xi Jinping, President of China. Pelosi did not bring a personal letter from President Biden. The Chinese side may request a meeting (informal talks) with President Yoon on the grounds of delivering such a letter.

Considering the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between South Korea and China, the trade imbalance, and economic issues such as the supply of raw materials for key components in semiconductors and electric vehicle batteries, this possibility is even more significant.

Meanwhile, Chinese state media have only disclosed Chairman Li's overseas schedule and have not reported any specific stance regarding his visit to South Korea.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.