"Clear Shift to Declining Trend in Re-epidemic" ... Updated Vaccine Vaccinations May Start as Early as Next Month

109,333 Confirmed Cases by 9 PM Last Night... 60,000 Fewer Than Previous Week
New Daily Cases Next Week Expected to Range Between 90,000 and 130,000

On the 17th, when the number of new COVID-19 cases surged to the 180,000 range, citizens were waiting for testing at the screening clinic of Songpa-gu Public Health Center in Seoul. The Central Disease Control Headquarters announced that as of midnight that day, there were 180,803 new COVID-19 cases. The number of confirmed cases nearly increased by 100,000 compared to the previous day as the holiday ended. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] The resurgence of COVID-19 is showing a clear decline, and it is predicted that the number of new confirmed cases will drop to around 100,000 per day by the end of this month. The updated vaccines effective against COVID-19 variants are expected to be available for inoculation as early as next month.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters and local governments on the 25th, from midnight to 9 p.m. the previous day, 109,333 people across 17 cities and provinces nationwide were confirmed positive for COVID-19.

This is 25,150 fewer than the same time on the 23rd (134,483) and 60,737 fewer than the same time a week ago on the 17th (170,070). The number of new confirmed cases as of midnight on the 25th, including data collected until midnight, is expected to exceed 110,000.

From the 18th to the 24th, the daily new confirmed cases were 178,533 → 138,788 → 129,380 → 110,915 → 59,032 → 150,258 → 139,339, averaging 129,464 per day.

Moreover, this week, the number of new COVID-19 cases continues to decline compared to the previous week. On the 21st, the number of new cases decreased by 8,602 compared to the 14th (119,546), on the 22nd it was 3,010 fewer than the 15th (62,056), on the 23rd the number was similar to two weeks prior (September 9th: 149,860), and on the 24th it decreased by more than 41,424 compared to a week earlier (17th: 180,763).

New daily cases next week expected between 90,000 and 130,000

As the spread of the COVID-19 resurgence slows, health authorities released a mathematical modeling analysis from the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences predicting that the epidemic will gradually decline this week or next, with new daily confirmed cases reaching the low 100,000s by the end of this month.

According to the report, Professor Jeong Eun-ok's research team at Konkuk University predicted 131,614 new cases on the 31st and 124,570 cases on September 7th. The number of severe cases during this period is expected to be around 570.

Professor Jeong Il-hyo's research team from the Department of Mathematics at Pusan National University estimated the daily average domestic infections between August 24 and 30 to be 118,128, adding 455 to 475 imported cases, forecasting total daily confirmed cases between 118,583 and 118,603. They also analyzed that if the current contact rate and isolation levels continue, the effective reproduction number will fall below 1 over the next two weeks, suppressing the epidemic.

Professor Shim Eun-ha's research team at Soongsil University also projected 124,076 cases one week later and 97,974 cases two weeks later.

Notably, the research team led by Kwon Oh-gyu at the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences stated, "The increase in new confirmed cases over the past two weeks has plateaued earlier than predicted," forecasting that nationwide new cases will drop to around 37,000 by the 31st and about 30,000 by September 7th.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Restrictions on in-person visits during Chuseok holiday to be maintained

Despite the decline in the COVID-19 resurgence, the government has decided to continue restricting in-person visits at infection-vulnerable facilities such as nursing hospitals and care facilities during the upcoming Chuseok holiday next month. This decision is based on the assessment that protection of high-risk groups is necessary as the number of severe cases and deaths continues to rise even though confirmed cases are decreasing.

According to the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters, confirmed cases from cluster infections in vulnerable facilities nearly doubled over three weeks from the 4th week of July (24th?30th) to the 3rd week of August (14th?20th). Although the number of cluster infections in nursing hospitals and facilities in the 3rd week of August was 45, down from 165 in the 4th week of July, the average number of confirmed cases per cluster increased 1.7 times from 24.8 to 42.6. As of midnight on the 24th, the number of severe cases was 573, the highest in four months since April 26th (613).

Previously, the government allowed in-person visits at nursing homes and nursing hospitals starting June 20th, but suspended them again from July 5th as the COVID-19 resurgence began. To prevent severe illness among high-risk groups, health authorities plan to expand the 'Mobile Medical Task Force for Nursing Facilities,' where medical staff visit nursing homes without resident doctors for face-to-face treatment, and encourage prescriptions of oral antiviral treatments.

Updated vaccines may be approved as early as early to mid-September

Meanwhile, updated vaccines effective against COVID-19 variants are expected to receive approval from the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety by late September, possibly as early as early to mid-September, and vaccinations will begin thereafter.

Jeong Ki-seok, chairman of the National Infectious Disease Crisis Response Advisory Committee, said at a briefing yesterday, "The Ministry of Food and Drug Safety should ensure maximum safety and conduct thorough reviews but also grant approval as swiftly as possible to enable a wider range of vaccine strategies."

Chairman Jeong also predicted that COVID-19 vaccines will become 'seasonal vaccines' administered annually at specific times, similar to flu vaccines. He explained, "Instead of terms like fourth or fifth doses, it will become a seasonal vaccine targeting the entire population or high-risk groups. If the accumulated immunity is supplemented with updated seasonal vaccines, a significant portion of the population will gain immunity."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.