COVID-19 Increase Slows Down... "Peak Likely Below 200,000"

Infection Reproduction Number Lower Than 1-2 Weeks Ago
"Less Than a Quarter of the Omicron Pandemic"

On the 3rd, 119,922 new COVID-19 cases were reported domestically, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to over 20 million. Citizens are getting tested at the screening clinic of Yongsan-gu Public Health Center in Seoul on this day. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Young-won] As the increase in COVID-19 confirmed cases slows down, there is a forecast that the peak of the resurgence will remain below 200,000 cases per day. The cumulative number of COVID-19 confirmed cases has surpassed 20 million.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 3rd, the infection reproduction number over the past week has decreased compared to the previous week. From the 24th to the 30th of last month, the infection reproduction number was 1.29, down from 1.54 a week earlier. It was also lower than the infection reproduction number two weeks ago (1.40). An infection reproduction number above 1 indicates the spread of the epidemic, while below 1 indicates suppression of the epidemic.

The rate of increase in new confirmed cases compared to the previous week is also gradually decreasing. On the 3rd, the number of new confirmed cases was 119,922, which is 1.2 times that of the previous week. A week ago, the rate compared to the week before was 1.31 times, and two weeks ago it was 1.90 times, nearly double. Lee Ki-il, the 1st General Coordinator of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters (Vice Minister of Health and Welfare), said, "The phenomenon of cases doubling is slowing down, but it is still too early to be complacent," and added, "We ask for special caution at places where many people gather such as concert halls, beaches, and in nursing hospitals and facilities vulnerable to infection."

Experts have adjusted the expected scale of the resurgence peak lower than initially predicted. Professor Jung Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine analyzed, "The epidemic peak will pass between this week and next week, and the scale is expected to be less than half of the initial estimate," adding, "Looking at the overall size of the infection, it will be less than a quarter of the Omicron pandemic." Last month, the health authorities predicted the resurgence peak to be between 200,000 and 300,000 cases.

Considering the summer vacation season, there are also opinions that the number will not reach the 200,000 cases predicted by the authorities. Professor Baek Soon-young, Emeritus Professor at the Catholic University College of Medicine, said, "(The peak) will not even reach 200,000," and added, "There will be some increase due to the vacation period, but the peak will form between 150,000 and 200,000 cases, and it is expected to decline around late August after the vacation season ends."

The cumulative number of confirmed cases has exceeded 20 million. As of midnight on this day, the total cumulative confirmed cases reached 20,052,305. This means that within two and a half years since the first domestic confirmed case on January 20, 2020, about two out of every five people in the country have been infected with COVID-19.

Domestic cumulative confirmed cases began to surge starting from the Omicron wave in February and March of this year. The cumulative confirmed cases, which exceeded 1 million on February 6, surpassed 10 million on March 23, and broke through 15 million on April 9, two weeks later. Although the rate of increase slowed down afterward, the recent resurgence due to the spread of BA.5 led to the cumulative confirmed cases exceeding 19 million on the 21st of last month.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.