Another Reversed Military Judgment: "Simple Disappearance → Voluntary Defection to North Korea → Unable to Prove"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] The Ministry of National Defense stated that it "could not prove the voluntary defection to the North by the missing public official in relation to the 'West Sea Public Official Killing Incident'." This marks a reversal from the previous stance in 2020, when it was judged that voluntary defection was highly likely.

On the 16th, the Ministry of National Defense said in a statement, "As a result of reanalyzing the relevant information in connection with the Coast Guard's conclusion of the investigation, we could not prove the missing public official's voluntary defection to the North."

The Ministry added, "After the press release on September 24, 2020, during a Q&A session with the press corps, we announced that the killed public official was presumed to have attempted defection to the North, which caused confusion among the public. We regret not being able to disclose more facts due to security reasons."

At the same time, the Ministry pointed out responsibility on the North Korean side. It stated, "The Blue House National Security Office requested a joint South-North reinvestigation to clarify the facts due to discrepancies between the Ministry of National Defense's analysis and North Korea's claims, but the North Korean authorities have not responded in any way so far."

Previously, former Minister of National Defense Seo Wook explained at the National Assembly National Defense Committee hearing on October 7, 2020, "Initially (on the day of disappearance), I asked the staff if there was a possibility of going to the North, and I was reported that the possibility of defection was low or none. Later (on the 22nd, the day after disappearance), through intelligence, we learned that he was in the North." The initial missing report was received at 12:51 p.m. on the 21st near Soyeonpyeongdo, and the Coast Guard began searching for the missing person around 1:50 p.m. that day. Until intelligence was obtained at 3:30 p.m. on the 22nd indicating contact between a North Korean vessel and the missing Mr. Lee near Deungsanggot, the military also considered the possibility of defection to be low.

Subsequently, a military official told reporters on September 24, 2020, "Based on information analysis, considering that the missing person was wearing a life jacket, abandoned his shoes when leaving the fishing guidance vessel, used a small floating object, and there were signs indicating an intention to defect to the North, it is judged that there is a high possibility of a voluntary defection attempt, and the detailed circumstances are under investigation." This changed the assessment of Mr. Lee from a 'simple missing person' to a 'defection attempt.'

Below is the timeline of the 'North Korean Shooting of Public Official Incident.'

▲ 2020.9.21 = West Sea Fisheries Management Unit reports missing person A at about 12:51 p.m. on the sea 2.2 km south of Soyeonpyeongdo, aboard fishing management vessel Mugunghwa No. 10. Search by Coast Guard, Navy, and Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries.

▲ 2020.9.22 = North Korean Fisheries Office vessel contacts A, wearing a life jacket and floating on debris, at about 3:30 p.m. near Deungsanggot, 38 km northwest of Soyeonpyeongdo.

= At about 9:40 p.m., North Korean soldiers on a high-speed boat shoot and kill A, then burn the body.

▲ 2020.9.23 = Blue House ministerial meeting discusses countermeasures. Ministry of National Defense publicly announces A's disappearance.

▲ 2020.9.24 = Ministry of National Defense first publicly reveals North Korean shooting and mutilation of the body. Blue House issues statement condemning North Korea.

= Incheon Coast Guard holds briefing explaining that A left no signs such as a suicide note indicating defection but cannot exclude the possibility of voluntary defection.

= A's older brother disputes the defection evidence mentioned in the briefing.

▲ 2020.9.25 = Blue House National Security Office announces delivery of a notification including North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's public apology.

▲ 2020.9.26 = Blue House requests additional investigation from North Korea.

▲ 2020.9.27 = North Korea demands suspension of South Korea's 'unauthorized intrusion' during military search for the public official's body.

▲ 2020.9.29 = Coast Guard announces interim investigation results judging that A defected to the North, citing gambling debts, signs of defection intent, and drift prediction results.

▲ 2020.10.5 = A's son delivers a handwritten letter urging truth-finding to former President Moon Jae-in.

▲ 2020.10.6 = A's older brother files information disclosure request with Ministry of National Defense for military intercepted North Korean conversations and recordings.

▲ 2020.10.7 = Minister of National Defense states at National Assembly hearing that on the day of A's disappearance report, he was informed that the possibility of defection was none.

▲ 2020.10.8 = Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries announces plan to investigate A's accident itself at National Assembly hearing.

▲ 2020.10.13 = Former President Moon sends a reply to A's son suggesting to wait for Coast Guard investigation results.

▲ 2020.10.14 = A's older brother files information disclosure request for statements of nine crew members of the fishing guidance vessel with the Coast Guard.

▲ 2020.10.19 = A's son sends a follow-up letter to former President Moon.

▲ 2020.10.21 = A's family holds memorial service on board near Soyeonpyeongdo.

▲ 2020.10.28 = A's older brother files information disclosure request regarding reports received by Blue House on the day of the incident.

▲ 2020.10.29 = A's older brother requests Coast Guard to suspend body search.

▲ 2020.10.31 = Coast Guard switches A's body search to a security-parallel method.

▲ 2020.11.3 = Ministry of National Defense states refusal to disclose information requested by A's older brother.

▲ 2021.1.13 = A's older brother files lawsuit against Blue House, Ministry of National Defense, and Coast Guard for information disclosure.

▲ 2021.9.24 = Prosecutors dismiss case filed by civic group against former President Moon.

▲ 2021.11.12 = Court partially rules in favor of plaintiff in information disclosure lawsuit filed by A's older brother.

▲ 2021.11.30~12.6 = Coast Guard and Blue House each appeal court's information disclosure ruling.

▲ 2021.12.28 = A's older brother files injunction to prohibit designation of incident-related information as presidential records against former President Moon and Blue House.

▲ 2021.12.29 = Incheon Police Agency raids Coast Guard regarding defamation complaint filed by A.

▲ 2022.4.13 = A's older brother files constitutional complaint regarding Presidential Records Management Act allowing non-disclosure of national security information.

▲ 2022.4.22 = A's family files lawsuit against North Korea seeking mental damages.

▲ 2022.5.22 = Court accepts missing person declaration for A, officially recognizing his death.

▲ 2022.6.8 = Incheon Police Agency decides not to indict South Sea Coast Guard Chief on defamation charges related to A's death.

▲ 2022.6 = Coast Guard suspends investigation into North Korean soldiers who shot and killed A.

▲ 2022.6.16 = Coast Guard announces final investigation results stating no evidence of A's defection to the North.

= Presidential Office National Security Office and Coast Guard withdraw appeals in information disclosure lawsuits related to the incident. Investigation materials from the time of the incident are disclosed.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.