French President Macron Uncertain to Secure Majority in First Round of Legislative Elections... "Tight Race Between Ruling and Opposition Parties" (Comprehensive)

French President Emmanuel Macron [Photo by Reuters]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] In the French general election, the ruling coalition 'Ensemble,' including President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Renaissance party, faces the risk of failing to secure a majority of seats. The French general election consists of two rounds of voting held one week apart, so the exact composition of the new parliament is expected to become clear only after the second round on the 19th.

According to polling agencies such as Ipsos on the 12th (local time), in the first round of the French general election held that day, Ensemble received 25.2% of the vote, trailing slightly behind the left-wing coalition 'NUPES' (New Ecologic and Social People's Union) led by Jean-Luc M?lenchon, leader of La France Insoumise (LFI), which garnered 25.6%.

Based on this, Ipsos projected that Ensemble would secure between 255 and 295 seats after the second round scheduled for the 19th. While the ruling coalition is currently expected to win the largest number of seats, it remains uncertain whether they will be able to secure the majority threshold of 289 seats needed to control the parliament. NUPES is expected to come in second with 189 to 219 seats.

On this day, France held the first round of the general election to elect 577 members of the National Assembly, whose five-year term will largely coincide with President Macron’s second term, secured in the presidential election last April. For smooth governance, Macron needs to secure a majority of at least 289 seats in this election. Currently, Macron’s party and allied parties hold an overwhelming majority with 345 seats.

Even if the ruling coalition fails to secure a majority, governance remains possible, but each policy decision would require negotiation with other parties, potentially weakening the momentum for policy implementation. In particular, Macron’s proposed economic reform policies could face opposition.

Ahead of the election, President Macron pledged to protect households struggling with record-high inflation by promising pension increases and tax cuts. Meanwhile, M?lenchon, leader of the left-wing parties, appealed for votes to counterbalance Macron by advocating for measures such as raising the minimum wage.

The far-right National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, is expected to secure up to 45 seats in this election. Having won 8 seats in the 2017 general election, the National Rally aims to secure more than 15 seats this year to form a parliamentary group.

Meanwhile, voter turnout for this election is expected to be between 47% and 47.5%, marking a historic low. In the French general election, if no candidate wins a majority in the first round, a second round is held one week later, where the top candidate and the 2nd to 4th place candidates who have secured more than 12.5% of registered voters’ support compete again.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.