Increased Activity... Higher COVID-19 Infection Rates Among 10s and 20s

Rapid Surge in Mobile Communication Population Movement... Will Infection Spread?

On the first day of the extended holiday, the 5th, citizens visiting Yeouido Hangang Park in Seoul are enjoying their time. Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Young-won] Recently, the proportion of young people among COVID-19 confirmed cases has increased. This appears to be due to increased activity among young people following the lifting of social distancing measures and seasonal factors.

According to health authorities on the 11th, the proportion of COVID-19 confirmed cases in the 10-20 age group has risen over the past month. On April 11, the daily new confirmed cases included 11.8% teenagers and 13.0% people in their 20s. By May 10, these proportions increased to 14.8% for teenagers and 16.6% for those in their 20s, rising by 3.0 and 3.6 percentage points respectively.

The increase in confirmed cases among young people is attributed to increased mobility. According to the 'Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report,' mobility over the recent 52 weeks (March 25 to May 6) increased by 11% in facilities such as restaurants, cafes, and shopping centers, and by 64% in outdoor leisure facilities like parks and beaches. The 'Telecommunication Mobile Population Movement' data compiled by Statistics Korea also shows increased mobility among the 10-20 age group. From May 3 to 9, the year-on-year increase rate in telecommunication mobility was highest among those under 20 at 10.4%, followed by those in their 20s at 7.3%. Additionally, population mobility across all age groups increased by 3.5% compared to the fourth week of April.

The health authorities pointed to increased activity during the holiday period on May 8-9 as a factor for the slight rise in confirmed cases. Lee Sang-won, head of the Epidemiological Investigation and Analysis Team at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, stated, "Activity indicators are currently at their highest since January this year," adding, "The incidence rate has increased across all age groups, with the highest rates among teenagers and people in their 20s."

Timing-wise, it has also been 45 days since early to mid-March when the Omicron wave was peaking, which is the period when reinfections are recognized. Currently, South Korea's reinfection criteria are: ▲ detection of the virus again between 45 and 89 days after the initial confirmed date with symptoms or exposure to a confirmed case ▲ detection of the virus again after 90 days.

Experts pointed out that various factors, including increased mobility, could cause the number of confirmed cases to plateau or rebound. Professor Kim Woo-joo of the Infectious Diseases Department at Korea University Guro Hospital said, "The introduction of the BA.2.12.1 variant, removal of outdoor mask mandates, lifting of social distancing, increased holiday mobility, and the near halt of vaccination efforts are all combining to potentially increase cases from late May to early June."

Professor Chun Eun-mi of the Respiratory Medicine Department at Ewha Mokdong Hospital explained, "The increase in activity among young people after all preventive measures were lifted likely contributed to the recent slight rise in confirmed cases and the slowing decline," adding, "Among the young generation, about 30-40% who have never been infected with COVID-19 could lead to an increase in confirmed cases." She further noted, "However, since the current trend is a decrease in cases, the increase will not be large but rather a small-scale rise or a very slow decline."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.