US Expects Putin to Declare Full-Scale War on Ukraine on Victory Day, May 9

Possibility of National Mobilization Order upon Declaration of War
Referendums Also Being Prepared in Donbas and Occupied Territories

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The U.S. government has indicated that Russian President Vladimir Putin may declare an all-out war on Ukraine on May 9, Russia's Victory Day commemorating the end of World War II. If President Putin declares an all-out war, it could lead to a transition to a wartime system including a national mobilization order and martial law, raising concerns about a significant increase in the size of the invading forces.

According to CNN on May 2 (local time), Ned Price, spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State, stated during a press briefing, "There is sufficient reason to believe that Russia could do anything on May 9," adding, "There are observations that Russia may finally make an official all-out declaration of war against Ukraine on this day."

So far, the Russian government has referred to the invasion of Ukraine domestically as a special military operation aimed at liberating the Donbas region, and therefore, no orders for a national mobilization or martial law transitioning to a wartime system have been issued. However, even two weeks after the declaration of the Donbas offensive, ground operations have stalled, failing to capture the primary target areas, leading to reports that the need for a national mobilization order for large-scale conscription is being raised.

Earlier, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace also pointed out in an interview with the UK’s LBC Radio last weekend, "President Putin is trying to move beyond the special military operation and is building justification for a wartime mobilization system by claiming that more soldiers are needed as the conflict shifts to a war against Nazis."

Alongside a declaration of war, Russia is expected to announce referendums in occupied territories on Victory Day. It is possible that Russia will forcibly hold referendums to fully annex strategic strongholds such as the Donbas region and Kherson into Russian territory. Earlier that day, Michael Carpenter, the U.S. Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), stated at a press conference, "There is intelligence that Russia may attempt to annex the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) around mid-May," adding, "There is also a possibility of similar referendums being held in Kherson."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.