"If the current trend continues, COVID-19 confirmed cases will reach 30,000 to 40,000 per day in 4 weeks"

COVID-19 Surmimodeling TF Report
"Severe Cases Rose to 600s Then Gradually Decreased"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Young-won] According to predictions based on mathematical modeling by domestic researchers, the daily number of new COVID-19 cases is estimated to decrease to the 30,000 to 40,000 range around mid-May.

On the 21st, research teams from domestic universities belonging to the COVID-19 Mathematical Modeling Task Force (TF) released a report forecasting a decline in the epidemic.

Professor Jung Eun-ok's team at Konkuk University predicted that if the current trend of infection transmission continues considering vaccine, variant, and treatment usage, the number of new confirmed cases will be 35,365 around mid-May, four weeks from now. The number of severe patients is expected to rise to 628 one week later, then decrease to 499 after two weeks, 390 after three weeks, and 301 after four weeks.

Professor Lee Hyo-jung's team at Kyungpook National University estimated that assuming the spread trend is maintained, the number of confirmed cases will be 35,815 on May 18, four weeks later. Under a scenario where the spread is mitigated, new confirmed cases are projected to decrease to 14,205.

Professor Lee Chang-hyung's team from the Department of Mathematical Sciences at Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST) set the reproduction number at 0.7615 for the past four weeks. The team expects the number of confirmed cases to decrease over the next two weeks under the current social distancing measures and assuming no impact from new variants.

The team estimated that if the reproduction number drops to 0.3, the number of confirmed cases will be in the 40,000 range two weeks later. If it decreases to 0.5, about 60,000 confirmed cases are expected two weeks later. However, in a scenario where the reproduction number increases to 1.1, an increase in confirmed cases is anticipated. In this case, new confirmed cases are projected to reach 129,039 on April 27 and 138,057 on May 4.

Professor Jung Il-hyo's team at Pusan National University's Department of Mathematics analyzed the average reproduction number from April 13 to 19 as 0.50. According to this trend, the team expects an average daily new confirmed case count of 61,116 by April 25, and 36,605 from April 27 to May 3.

Researcher Kwon Oh-gyu at the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences predicted COVID-19 spread based on daytime and nighttime regional movement. Researcher Kwon forecasted that new confirmed cases will continuously decrease in almost all regions, with the number falling below 20,000 around May 18.

Professor Kim Min-hye's team at Kyungpook National University predicted a decrease in COVID-19 deaths over the next two weeks while also noting limitations. The team explained, "Due to recent changes in PCR testing targets, the number of confirmed cases and deaths not captured within the surveillance system likely increased," adding, "The actual number of COVID-19 related deaths is estimated to be higher than the predicted figures."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.