[Yoon Seok-yeol Elected] Lost Gyeonggi but Gained Momentum in Seoul... Generation Encirclement Theory Half Successful

Unprecedented Ultra-Close Presidential Election
Victory in 14 of 25 Seoul Districts
Casting Vote Majority Achieved in Chungcheong
Stronghold Consolidation in Daegu and Gyeongbuk
67.1% Votes from Age 60 and Above
Gained Young Men, Lost Young Women

Yoon Seok-yeol, the president-elect of the 20th Republic of Korea, is holding a victory greeting press conference on the morning of the 10th at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

[Asia Economy Reporter Ki-min Lee] The key factors behind Yoon Seok-yeol's victory in the 20th presidential election are considered to be the generational encirclement theory, targeting the Chungcheong region, and strong performance in Seoul.

However, the reason for the narrow victory, which fell short of the public's desire for a regime change, is paradoxically attributed to the fact that the strategies focused on Honam, generational encirclement, and young men in their 20s (I-dae-nam) did not receive as much support as expected.

According to the final vote count by the National Election Commission on the 10th, Yoon Seok-yeol secured 16,394,815 votes (48.56%) out of a total of 34,067,853 votes, narrowly defeating Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, who received 16,147,738 votes (47.83%), by a margin of 247,077 votes. This is the smallest gap between the first and second place candidates in the history of presidential elections.

This election saw an unprecedentedly fierce close race, with Yeongnam and Honam regions consolidating their support for Yoon and Lee respectively.

Yoon Seok-yeol secured 75.14% and 72.76% of the votes in Daegu and Gyeongbuk (TK), traditional strongholds of conservative parties, outpacing Lee. Meanwhile, Lee recorded 81.5% in Gwangju and 81.1% in Jeonnam, marking the highest vote shares since former President Kim Dae-jung in the 15th presidential election, thereby maintaining the Democratic Party's stronghold. Yoon also garnered over half the votes in the conservative-leaning Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions, with 58.25%, 54.41%, and 58.24% respectively.

In the crucial metropolitan area, Yoon lost Gyeonggi and Incheon to Lee but secured victory in Seoul, which is seen as the turning point. Yoon achieved 50.56% of the vote in Seoul, significantly surpassing Lee's 45.73%. Out of 25 autonomous districts, Yoon won in 14. Notably, in the strongly conservative Gangnam 3 districts (Seocho-gu, Gangnam-gu, Songpa-gu), he secured 65.13%, 61.01%, and 56.76% respectively.

On the other hand, Lee, a former governor of Gyeonggi, won a majority with 50.94% there, ahead of Yoon's 45.62%, but only managed 48.91% in Incheon, the constituency of Democratic Party leader Song Young-gil.

Furthermore, in the traditional swing region of Chungcheong and Daejeon, which drew attention as a contest between 'son and son-in-law,' Yoon, the 'son,' captured the electorate. In Sejong, Lee led with 51.91% over Yoon's 44.14%, a difference of about 7.7 percentage points. Yoon surpassed the halfway mark in Chungnam and Chungbuk with 51.08% and 50.67% respectively, and won Daejeon with 49.55%, beating Lee's 46.44% by 3.11 percentage points. In Gangwon, Yoon also secured a majority with 54.18%, outpacing Lee's 41.72%.

In Gwangju and Jeonnam, where Yoon and People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok campaigned vigorously until the end, the People Power Party achieved the highest vote shares ever recorded by a conservative party. The previous records were 7.76% in Gwangju and 10% in Jeonnam during the 18th presidential election won by former President Park Geun-hye.

Throughout the election, Yoon and the People Power Party pursued a generational encirclement strategy, aiming to secure votes from young men in their 20s (I-dae-nam), the 2030 generation, and seniors over 60, thereby surrounding the progressive-leaning 40s and 50s age groups and winning by a large margin. However, this strategy did not precisely capture the electorate's sentiment. According to exit polls by KBS, SBS, and MBC, Yoon received 45.5% of the votes among those under 20, trailing Lee who had 47.8%.

The failure to win the 20s vote is attributed to the I-dae-nam strategy. While Yoon secured 58.7% of the votes from 20-something men by appealing with promises such as abolishing the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family and recognizing military service, a backlash among 20-something women (I-dae-nyeo) consolidated support for Lee, who received 58% of the female 20s vote. In their 30s, Yoon led with 48.1% over Lee's 46.3%, a margin of about 1.8 percentage points. Lee outperformed Yoon in the 40s and 50s age groups with 60.5% and 52.4% respectively, compared to Yoon's 35.4% and 43.9%.

Conversely, among seniors aged 60 and above, Yoon won decisively with 67.1%, far ahead of Lee's 30.8%.

President-elect Yoon Seok-yeol is performing an uppercut ceremony for supporters in front of the People Power Party headquarters in Yeouido, Seoul, on the 10th. Photo by Yoon Dong-ju doso7@

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.