"The Next Two Weeks Will Be the Peak of the Outbreak" ... Late March to Early April 'Final Crisis'

Around 300,000 Daily COVID-19 Cases Persist... "Cases Gradually Declining After Peak"
Severe Cases and Deaths Expected to Surge in 3-4 Weeks... Need for Efficient Hospital Bed Management

On the 9th, the day of the 20th presidential election, COVID-19 positive voters are casting their precious votes at Yeomni-dong 2nd polling station set up at Hanseo Elementary School in Mapo-gu, Seoul. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] On the 9th, the day of the 20th presidential election, the number of new COVID-19 cases exceeded 340,000, marking the highest ever recorded. This is the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak that daily cases have reached the 300,000 range. The cumulative number of confirmed cases also surpassed 5 million domestically, 2 years and 1 month (779 days) after the first COVID-19 case was reported in Korea. Experts predict that the Omicron variant wave has reached its peak and that there will be a critical period in the next two weeks with daily cases hovering around 300,000.

Election Day Cases at 340,000, 'Highest Ever'

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters, as of midnight on the day, 342,446 new COVID-19 cases were reported, bringing the total cumulative cases to 5,212,118. Compared to the previous day's 202,720 cases, this is an increase of 139,726 cases in one day. Typically, the number of PCR tests decreases on Saturdays and Sundays, leading to fewer new cases, but the number of tests conducted on Monday is reflected starting Wednesday, causing a surge in reported cases.

The number of cases on this day is 1.6 times higher than a week ago on the 2nd (219,227 cases) and about twice as high as two weeks ago on the 23rd of last month (171,450 cases).

The cumulative number of confirmed cases surpassed 4 million on the 5th, and just four days later, exceeded 5 million. The cumulative cases passed 1 million on February 6th this year, 748 days (2 years and 18 days) after the first domestic case on January 20, 2020. Since then, with the spread of the Omicron variant, the numbers have rapidly increased: 2 million on February 21, 3 million on February 28, 4 million on March 5, and now over 5 million. This means that approximately 1 in 10 people in Korea has contracted COVID-19 so far.

The trend of new COVID-19 confirmed cases predicted by the team led by Professor Jaehoon Jeong from the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine.

"Around 300,000 Cases Daily for the Next Two Weeks"

Experts anticipate that the COVID-19 wave will reach its peak within the next 1 to 2 weeks. They expect daily new cases to fluctuate between 250,000 and 350,000 before the Omicron spread gradually declines. If daily cases remain above 300,000 for two weeks, the cumulative cases will approach 10 million.

Professor Jung Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine stated on Facebook the day before, "It seems the peak of the wave will pass in about two weeks starting from the 9th," adding, "The new case numbers announced on March 9, 11, 15, and 16 are likely to be the highest we will feel."

Professor Eom Jung-sik of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Gachon University Gil Medical Center also diagnosed, "We can say that the COVID-19 wave has entered its peak period, and the situation of 250,000 to 350,000 cases daily may continue for about 10 days to two weeks."

Even after the peak, the decline in new cases may not be as rapid as seen in other countries. Professor Eom predicted, "Since this is the first large-scale COVID-19 wave in Korea, fewer people have natural immunity, and there are many breakthrough infections after vaccination, so the number of confirmed cases will likely decrease gradually."

Prepare for Sharp Increase in Severe Cases and Deaths After Peak

The final crisis of the Omicron wave is likely to occur from late March to early April, when severe cases sharply increase. Typically, severe cases surge 1 to 2 weeks after a rapid rise in confirmed cases, followed by a surge in deaths 1 to 2 weeks later.

Severe cases have already been increasing due to the surge in confirmed cases. The number of severe patients reported on this day was 1,087, an increase of 80 from the previous day (1,007). ICU bed occupancy is also rising rapidly; as of midnight, the nationwide COVID-19 severe bed utilization rate was 59.1% (1,625 out of 2,751 beds in use). The utilization rate of semi-severe beds, which treat patients who may improve or worsen, was 63.8%. The number of COVID-19 deaths reported on the previous day was 158. The cumulative death toll is 9,440, with a cumulative fatality rate of 0.18%. Authorities expect the number of severe cases to increase to between 1,700 and 2,750 by mid to late March.

Professor Kim Tak of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Soonchunhyang University said, "Looking at the epidemic curves of other countries, deaths peak about 2 to 4 weeks after the daily confirmed cases peak, with deaths roughly doubling. In Korea, daily deaths are expected to reach 300 to 400 from late March to April, with about 10,000 to 15,000 deaths occurring within a short period of one to two months."

Although health authorities explain that they can adequately treat up to 2,000 severe patients simultaneously and manage up to 2,500 through bed efficiency improvements, the field is warning of a bed shortage crisis and medical system overload.

Professor Jung analyzed, "With the currently secured 2,500 to 600 beds, the realistically manageable number of critical patients is about 1,800 at most." He emphasized, "The final crisis of Korea's Omicron wave is expected around late March to early April when severe patients fill beds, and how efficiently beds are managed at that time is crucial to saving precious lives. Active preparation to respond during this period is more important than anything else."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.