Low Early Voting Rates in Gyeonggi and Jeju... Ruling and Opposition Parties Focus on Swing Voters

Record High Average of 36.9%... "Result of Seoul Metropolitan Area Lee and Yoon Candidates' Supporters Still Not United"

[Asia Economy Reporters Koo Chae-eun, Lee Myung-hwan] The regions with the lowest early voting rates during the advance voting on the 4th and 5th were reported as Gyeonggi (33.65%), Jeju (33.78%), Daegu (33.91%), Incheon (34.09%), and Busan (34.25%) in that order. Among these, Gyeonggi, Jeju, and Incheon are considered swing voter regions, so both ruling and opposition parties have decided to focus all efforts on targeting undecided voters during the remaining two days. With the early voting rate reaching a record high of 36.9%, there is growing interest in whether the overall turnout will exceed 80% for the first time since the 1997 presidential election.

Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University commented on the early voting results on the 7th, saying, "Gyeonggi-do is known as candidate Lee’s ‘political hometown,’ so the low turnout there could be a result that candidate Lee needs to pay attention to in future election strategies." Professor Park Sang-byeong of Inha University interpreted, "This shows that the support bases for candidates Lee and Yoon in the metropolitan area have still not consolidated." Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon said, "Early voting has been perceived as a day for those who cannot vote on the main election day due to circumstances, so it is difficult to make political interpretations based on regional differences."

A high early voting rate does not necessarily guarantee a high final turnout. In the 21st general election, the region with the highest early voting rate was Jeonnam (35.77%), which was 12.21 percentage points higher than Daegu (23.56%), the region with the lowest rate. However, when combined with the main voting day, the total turnout difference between Jeonnam (67.8%) and Daegu (67.0%) narrowed to about 1 percentage point. In the case of the 19th presidential election, the early voting rate (26.06%) was 0.63 percentage points lower than that of the 21st general election (26.69%), but the main voting day turnout was 77.2%, which was 11 percentage points higher than the final turnout of the 21st general election (66.2%).

Regarding the possibility of the final turnout exceeding 80% including the main voting day on the 9th, commentators were divided. One commentator predicted, "Both candidates have strong unfavorable images, so it will be difficult for turnout to be higher than the last presidential election." Professor Shin said, "Since the only presidential election with turnout over 80% since the restoration of direct elections in 1987 was the 1997 election, and there is no clear correlation between early voting and final turnout, it is difficult to predict the final turnout based on early voting."

Each party has decided to maximize voter turnout and is targeting the centrist voters. Democratic Party leader Song Young-gil said at the Central Election Committee meeting that day, "The challenge is how to persuade the floating voters in the metropolitan area to support our candidate," emphasizing, "We will carry out political reform to give hope to conscientious centrist voters." Kwon Young-se, head of the People Power Party’s general election campaign headquarters, also said at the campaign meeting, "We will achieve a regime change by looking at the people," urging, "Please go to the polling stations and deliver victory."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.