Until the Last Day of Poll Publication... Lee and Yoon Show a 'Neck-and-Neck Race' with a 0.1% to 5.7%p Gap

6 Out of 7 Polls Show Neck-and-Neck Race Within Margin of Error
Yoon Slightly Ahead

On the 2nd, one week before the 20th presidential election, candidates from each party are taking a commemorative photo before the start of the 3rd invited candidates debate for the 20th presidential election, hosted by the Central Election Broadcasting Debate Commission, held at KBS in Yeouido, Seoul. Shim Sang-jung, Justice Party candidate (from the left), Yoon Seok-youl, People Power Party candidate, Ahn Cheol-soo, People’s Party candidate, Lee Jae-myung, Democratic Party of Korea candidate. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoon Seul-gi] On the last day for publishing public opinion polls, the 2nd, results from seven polls released showed that in six of them, Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, and Yoon Seok-youl, the candidate of the People Power Party, are still engaged in an ultra-close race with differences ranging from 0.1% to 5.7 percentage points.

According to a Realmeter poll commissioned by Newsis, conducted from February 28 to March 1 with 1,007 adults nationwide, Yoon received 46.3% support while Lee received 43.1%. The gap between the two candidates was 3.2 percentage points, within the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). Following them were Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party with 6.7% and Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party with 1.9%.

This poll was conducted via automated response system (ARS) telephone surveys (5% landline, 95% mobile), with a response rate of 10.4%.

Compared to the same poll conducted on March 3-4, Yoon’s support rose by 3.0 percentage points from 43.3%, and Lee’s increased by 1.3 percentage points from 41.8%.

In a poll conducted by Jowon C&I commissioned by the Korea Local Newspaper Association from February 26 to March 1 with 3,004 adults nationwide, Yoon received 45.3% and Lee 42.4%, showing a close race within the margin of error (±1.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). Ahn followed with 7.3%, and Sim with 1.7%.

Through the first (December 26-29, 2021), second (January 20-23), and this third poll, Yoon’s support increased from 39.5% to 42.9% to 45.3%, a rise of 5.8 percentage points, while Lee’s rose from 39.4% to 35.5% to 42.4%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points.

This poll was conducted using 100% mobile ARS survey method, with a response rate of 9.9%.

In a poll conducted by Jowon C&I commissioned by Ilyo Shinmun from February 28 to March 1 with 1,013 adults nationwide, Yoon received 44.9% and Lee 42.1%, showing a 2.8 percentage point difference within the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). Ahn received 7.0%, and Sim 2.6%.

This poll was conducted using 100% mobile ARS survey method, with a response rate of 8.6%.

According to a poll by Global Research commissioned by JTBC from February 28 to March 1 with 1,006 adults nationwide, Yoon received 42.3% and Lee 36.6%, showing a 5.7 percentage point gap within the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points). Ahn received 6.7%, and Sim 2.9%.

In the previous poll (February 19-20), Yoon’s support dropped by 0.1 percentage points, while Lee’s support increased by 2.5 percentage points.

This poll was conducted via 100% mobile telephone interviews, with a response rate of 20.9%.

Results showing the gap between Lee and Yoon being less than 1 percentage point were also released on the same day. According to a poll by Ace Research commissioned by the Korea Local Newspaper Council and others from February 27-28 with 1,004 adults nationwide, Yoon received 44.6% and Lee 43.7%, a 0.9 percentage point difference within the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). Ahn received 7.4%, and Sim 1.9%.

This poll was conducted via ARS telephone survey (100% mobile), with a response rate of 7.2%.

In a poll by Media Research commissioned by OBS from February 28 to March 1 with 1,000 adults nationwide, Lee received 45.0% and Yoon 44.9%, showing an ultra-close race with only a 0.1 percentage point difference. Ahn received 5.1%, and Sim 1.5%.

This poll was conducted via automated response system (ARS) telephone survey (100% mobile), with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level and a response rate of 11%.

There was also a result showing Yoon leading outside the margin of error. According to a poll by People Networks Research (PNR) commissioned by New Daily from February 26 to March 1 with 4,014 adults nationwide, Yoon received 46.5% and Lee 42.5% (±1.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). Ahn received 6.4%, and Sim 2.1%.

This poll was conducted via automated response telephone surveys on both landline and mobile phones, with a final response rate of 7.8%.

For more detailed information, please refer to the website of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.