Lee and Yoon in a close race within the margin of error... ARS favors Yoon, phone interviews favor Lee

Telephone Interview Survey: Lee 43.8% · Yoon 36.1%
First Time Higher Beyond Margin of Error

[Asia Economy Reporter Ki-min Lee] With the presidential election just 9 days away, the approval ratings of Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, are neck and neck within the margin of error. However, it drew attention as the first result showed Lee's approval rating leading beyond the margin of error in a telephone interview survey.

On the 28th, the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI), commissioned by TBS, conducted a wireless telephone interview survey from the 25th to 26th targeting 1,005 adults nationwide (sampling error ±3.1% at 95% confidence level, response rate 17.1%). Lee's approval rating was 43.8%, which was 7.7 percentage points higher than Yoon's 36.1%, exceeding the margin of error.

However, during the same period, the same organization conducted an ARS survey targeting 1,000 adults nationwide (sampling error ±3.1% at 95% confidence level, response rate 9.4%), which showed Yoon at 45% and Lee at 43.2%, presenting different results from the telephone interview survey.

The failure of candidate unification with Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party has not yet affected Yoon's approval rating. According to an ARS survey commissioned by The Fact and released by Realmeter on the 28th (survey conducted from the 26th to 27th targeting 1,009 adults aged 18 and over, sampling error ±3.1% at 95% confidence level), Yoon recorded 46.1%, 5.1 percentage points higher than Lee. Additionally, in a survey conducted by Realmeter commissioned by OhmyNews from the 24th to 27th targeting 2,052 adults aged 18 and over (sampling error ±2.2% at 95% confidence level), Yoon led Lee by 2.5 percentage points with 42.0% to 39.5%.

In surveys released over the past weekend (26th?27th), Lee and Yoon’s approval ratings were in a close race that was difficult to predict. Notably, in a survey conducted by Korea Research commissioned by KBS from the 24th to 25th (2,000 adults aged 18 and over, margin of error ±2.2% at 95% confidence level) and released on the 27th, both candidates tied with an approval rating of 38.8% down to the decimal point. Additionally, in a survey released on the 27th by News1-Embrain Public, Lee had 40.2% and Yoon 42.4%, while in a survey released on Saturday the 26th by Chosun Ilbo·TV Chosun-Kantar Korea, Lee and Yoon had approval ratings of 34.9% and 36.5%, respectively. For more details, please refer to the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.