[Summary 2] JCS: "North Korea Fires One Ballistic Missile Presumed into East Sea"

The 8th Armed Protest of the New Year

Image source=Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korea launched a projectile presumed to be a ballistic missile into the East Sea on the 27th. This launch came 28 days after the mid-range ballistic missile 'Hwasong-12' was fired on the 30th of last month, marking the eighth military provocation of the new year.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) stated in a text message sent to the press corps that morning, "At around 7:52 a.m., one projectile presumed to be a ballistic missile was detected launched from the Sunan area (Pyongyang) toward the East Sea." They added, "Our military is tracking and monitoring related movements in preparation for additional launches while maintaining a state of readiness."

The military authorities are currently analyzing the specifications of the projectile presumed to be a ballistic missile, including its range, peak altitude, and speed.

North Korea has refrained from provocations during the Olympics out of consideration for its 'blood alliance' with China, but the card of breaking the moratorium on nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test launches, declared last month, remains alive. However, with domestic and international events that could influence North Korea's 'provocation clock' scheduled, it is expected to observe the situation and choose the optimal timing rather than immediately carrying out military provocations.

The military authorities anticipate that North Korea will continue military provocations through April, following the South Korean presidential election on March 9. On the 4th, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un sent a congratulatory message to Chinese President Xi Jinping, wishing success for the Beijing Olympics while indirectly conveying a message to temporarily halt military actions.

April marks the Taeyangjeol (Kim Il-sung's birthday), North Korea's biggest holiday. North Korea is likely to use the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises (South Korea-U.S. drills) as a pretext for provocations. Given that the drills are expected to be postponed until April due to the presidential election and the COVID-19 Omicron variant outbreak, there is a high possibility of military provocations timed with the drills. Around this time, large-scale military parades or missile launches may occur.

The U.S.-Russia conflict is also a variable. The Ukraine crisis could accelerate North Korea's provocations by expanding the confrontation front between the U.S. and Russia into Northeast Asia, putting the Biden administration in a difficult position. There is a scenario where the North Korea-China-Russia allied front could be used as a pressure card against the U.S.

The National Intelligence Service reported to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee on the 21st of last month that there is a high possibility North Korea will launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) under the pretext of a satellite launch. Ha Tae-kyung, the opposition party's secretary of the Intelligence Committee and member of the People Power Party, stated at the time, "The National Intelligence Service analyzed the cards North Korea could play and indicated that launching an ICBM from Dongchang-ri is the most likely."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.