"Omicron Peak from Late February to March ... New Cases Up to 270,000 (Update)"

Bangdaebon, COVID-19 Risk Level 'High' for 5 Consecutive Weeks ... Omicron Detection Rate 98.9%
Severe Case Rate 0.38% · Fatality Rate 0.18% ... Critical Cases May Exceed 1,000

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] The domestic COVID-19 Omicron surge is expected to peak between late February and March, with daily confirmed cases potentially reaching 140,000 to 270,000, according to health authorities' projections. During this period, the number of critically ill patients hospitalized could increase to over 1,000.

The Central Disease Control Headquarters announced on the 21st that this prediction was made by synthesizing COVID-19 outbreak forecasts conducted by 10 domestic and international research institutions.

Specifically, it is projected that daily confirmed cases will exceed 170,000 from early March, and the number of critically ill patients, currently around 400, will increase to over 1,000 during the same period.

Earlier, on the 7th, health authorities had forecasted that the outbreak would peak around the end of this month with daily confirmed cases between 130,000 and 170,000. However, the latest projections indicate a slight delay in the peak timing and a larger scale of confirmed cases.

With daily new confirmed cases hovering around 100,000, the COVID-19 risk level nationwide, in the metropolitan area, and non-metropolitan areas remained at the 'high' stage last week (February 13?19). The nationwide risk level has been assessed as 'high' for five consecutive weeks since the third week of January (January 16?23).

The detection rate of Omicron, which became the dominant strain last month, has risen to 98.9%, nearing 100%. Over the past five weeks, the detection rate of Omicron has steadily increased from 50.3% to 80.0%, 92.1%, and 96.9%.

Health authorities explained that although confirmed cases have been doubling weekly for four consecutive weeks, the intensive care unit (ICU) bed occupancy rate remains relatively stable.

The ICU bed occupancy rate has increased from 18.6% to 27.3% over the past four weeks but still remains in the 20% range. Meanwhile, as more local clinics and hospitals participate in home treatment, the utilization rate of home treatment medical institutions, which had risen to 85.1% two weeks ago, has significantly dropped to around 34.7%.

The severity rate is also decreasing. A comparison of severity among 67,207 confirmed cases infected with Delta and Omicron variants since December last year showed that Omicron's severity rate was 0.38% and fatality rate 0.18%. This is about one-quarter of the Delta variant's severity rate of 1.40% and fatality rate of 0.70%. Particularly, among younger age groups under 60, the severity rate due to Omicron ranged from 0.03% to 0.08%, and the fatality rate from 0% to 0.03%, varying by age group.

Meanwhile, an additional analysis of treatment outcomes for 364 patients administered oral antiviral drugs showed that among 352 patients (96.7%) who completed the 5-day course, none progressed to critical illness or death. Among 301 respondents who completed the medication and participated in individual surveys, 81.1% reported improvement in COVID-19 symptoms such as respiratory and sore throat symptoms, and 89.4% expressed a positive response, stating they would recommend Paxlovid to others with COVID-19.

Jung Eun-kyung, Commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, said, "I believe we are currently at a critical point moving toward the peak of the Omicron surge." She added, "We will do our best to wisely, prudently, and calmly overcome this crisis through cooperation between the government and the public, so that we can accelerate the recovery of daily life."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.