The Beijing Olympics Conclude... Will North Korea's Provocations Resume?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] As the Beijing Winter Olympics concluded on the 20th, attention is focused on whether North Korea, which had maintained a 'silent and steady' stance, will resume provocations. However, experts believe that with the Chinese Two Sessions, the Paralympics, and South Korea's presidential election still upcoming, the likelihood of North Korea immediately resuming activities is low.

The Beijing Winter Olympics, which lasted for 17 days, came to an end with the closing ceremony held at 8 p.m. on the 20th at the Beijing National Stadium in China. Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the closing ceremony wearing a 'red mask' symbolizing China and encouraged the athletes.

North Korea, which had launched seven missiles as recently as January, showed restraint in provocations during the Beijing Winter Olympics. Not only was the continuous missile launching, which had occurred at intervals of 3 to 4 days last month, halted, but the military parade around the 80th anniversary of Kim Jong-il's birthday (the Day of the Bright Star) on the 16th was also omitted. The anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army (February 8) passed quietly as well.

There were no messages from Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party, directed at the U.S. or South Korea. Although there was speculation that Kim might make a 'hardline statement against the U.S.' at the Supreme People's Assembly on the 6th, he did not attend, and no significant messages were confirmed at the central report meeting commemorating Kim Jong-il's birthday on the 15th.

This can be interpreted as North Korea exercising maximum restraint in provocations considering the period of the Beijing Winter Olympics. Kim sent a congratulatory message related to the Olympics to President Xi, and recently China responded by expressing gratitude to North Korea for "supporting China on the international stage."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

With the conclusion of the Beijing Winter Olympics, concerns have been raised that North Korea, which had been quiet, may resume provocative actions. In particular, there are expectations of a military parade or unveiling of new weapons to coincide with the 110th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birthday (April 15, the Day of the Sun).

However, experts predict that North Korea will not immediately engage in military provocations. The Beijing Winter Paralympics (March 4?13) are still ongoing, and at the end of this month, there will be the Standing Committee meeting of the National People's Congress, followed by the Chinese Two Sessions (National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference) next month?major political events in China. South Korea's presidential election will also take place on March 9.

Jung Sung-jang, head of the North Korea Research Center at the Sejong Institute, said, "Although South Korea's presidential election is not a core consideration for North Korea, they likely do not want a hardline conservative candidate to win the election." He added, "It is highly probable that various missile test launches will be conducted during the month between the March 9 election and Kim Il-sung's birthday on April 15."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.