Unexpected Variable in Presidential Race Yoon-An 'Unification'... 'The Key is This Week's Public Opinion Trend'

This Weekend's Poll Results Are Key to Unification

[Asia Economy reporters Naju-seok and Kwon Hyun-ji] Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate of the People’s Party, has suddenly proposed unification against Yoon Seok-youl, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, causing the presidential election landscape to begin changing rapidly. Experts believe that if unification is achieved, the opposition’s chances of victory will increase. The key point to watch going forward is the trend of public opinion during this week when the presidential election officially begins. According to the flow of public opinion, it is analyzed that whether candidate Yoon will follow an independent path or participate in unification will be decided.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 14th, experts analyzed that the presidential election phase has fallen into a black hole called unification. Ahn Il-won, CEO of Research View, said in a phone interview with Asia Economy, “In this presidential election, there are hardly any positive aspects regarding candidates’ personal competitiveness, qualities, leadership, or family, and there is no policy differentiation, so the election was proceeding blandly with negative exchanges,” adding, “With unification emerging as the biggest variable, it is highly likely to act as a black hole that absorbs other issues.” Ahn also said, “If by this weekend or early next week there is a judgment that (candidate Yoon) can win without unification, he may choose his own way without being obsessed with unification. However, if the poll results are close, the need for unification will increase and the possibility of finding common ground will be high.”

However, the consensus among experts is that the possibility of unification is high. Professor Kim Yoon-chul of Kyung Hee University’s College of Humanities analyzed, “Currently, the competition with Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party, is fierce, and there is a consolidation of ruling party supporters.” Regarding the People Power Party’s refusal to accept public opinion polls for the unification method, Professor Kim viewed it as “a means to gain an advantage since there is still time until the presidential election.”

There was also an analysis that if unification is achieved, the opposition is likely to gain the upper hand. Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon said, “The possibility of opposition victory increases,” and analyzed, “With strong public opinion for regime change, vote splitting will be prevented and the support of moderate voters can be gained.” CEO Ahn also predicted, “Although there will be some defection of supporters like in last year’s April 7 by-elections, more than two-thirds of voters from the unified side are likely to combine and vote for the unified candidate. Considering that regime change is the main frame of this presidential election and public opinion is high, the opposition’s chances of victory are high.”

In political circles, the deadline for unification is tentatively set around the 27th to 28th of this month. Unification must be completed before the printing of ballots begins in order to maximize its effectiveness. If unification occurs before then, the withdrawing candidate’s name may be marked with ‘withdrawal.’ However, unification during the official campaign period is unusual. In past presidential elections, unification was achieved until just before the election, but in this election, unification is being discussed while the official campaign is underway.

Regarding candidate unification, candidate Ahn showed a slight advantage. According to a public opinion poll conducted by Gallup on behalf of Money Today on the 7th and 8th, if unification is under candidate Yoon, Yoon received 44.8% and Lee 39.5%. On the other hand, if unified under candidate Ahn, Ahn received 45.6% and Lee 35.9%. While candidate Yoon held a lead within the margin of error, candidate Ahn showed a lead beyond the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). For detailed information on the poll, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.