China's Export Decline Expected This Year... Weakening of COVID-19 Cited as Cause

Exports to Decline 5-10% This Year as China COVID Boom Ends
Global Demand Expected to Shift from Goods to Services

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Jo Young-shin] There are forecasts that China's exports may decline this year. China's exports surged by nearly 30% year-on-year last year, thanks to the special demand caused by COVID-19.

Photo by People's Daily (captured)

China's state-run Global Times reported on the 14th that China's exports could significantly slow down this year due to COVID-19. The media noted that as the Lunar New Year holiday ended, production activities of major Chinese export companies have resumed, but concerns remain about export declines due to the pandemic.

Wu Chaoming, Chief Economist at Caixin Securities, said, "COVID-19 may gradually weaken worldwide," diagnosing that this could have a negative impact on China's exports. He explained that as the pandemic subsides, the inventory of Chinese goods accumulated at ports and elsewhere will be consumed first, and it will take time to deplete these stocks.

Chief Economist Wu forecasted, "As the previously blocked global supply chain reopens, inventory will be consumed first," adding, "As a result, China's exports could decrease by 5 to 10% compared to the previous year."

According to China's General Administration of Customs, last year's total export value was $3.364 trillion (approximately 4,033 trillion KRW), a sharp increase of 29.9% compared to the previous year. China's exports reached an all-time high as the global supply chain was disrupted by COVID-19.

The Global Times also projected that the number of global COVID-19 cases is likely to decrease, which could shift global demand from goods to services.

The People's Daily, citing data from China's Ministry of Commerce, reported that last year's total service trade volume in China was 5.2982 trillion yuan. This represents an 8.2% increase from the previous year and accounted for 53.3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Above all, China's service trade deficit shrank to 211.2 billion yuan, indicating an improvement in China's service trade structure.

Meanwhile, Chinese media reported that the official economic growth target set by the Chinese government for this year is likely to be around 5.5%. Last year, the official economic growth target was above 6%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.