[Presidential Election D-1 Month] "I really don't know who will win"... The race remains 'uncertain'

Election Landscape Shifts One Month Before Historic Presidential Vote
Close Race Without a Clear Front-Runner... Polls Also Swing Back and Forth
Verification, TV Debates, Unification, and Generational Vote Consolidation as Key Variables

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] With the presidential election just a month away, an ultra-close race is underway, making it impossible to predict the outcome. Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, and Yoon Seok-youl, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, are locked in a neck-and-neck battle within the margin of error in various opinion polls. Looking back at past presidential elections, the period of 'one month' is usually enough time for public opinion to fluctuate, but this time is different. The first TV debate held the day before ended without any powerful blows, leading to assessments that its impact on the race is minimal. Additional verification disputes, TV debates, candidate unification, and generational public opinion trends are expected to determine the success or failure of the election.

As of the 4th, various opinion polls still make it difficult to gauge the leading candidate. Even polls released on the same day show different first and second places depending on the survey method (automated response phone or telephone interview), making the race unpredictable. In this election, the gap in support rates between presidential candidates is fluctuating back and forth. According to Gallup's regular opinion poll conducted from the 25th to the 27th of last month, both Lee and Yoon recorded 35% support, while Ahn had 15%.

Looking back at past presidential elections, public opinion one month before the election showed significant differences from the actual results. In the 19th presidential election held on March 9, 2017, Moon Jae-in, then the Democratic Party candidate, led with 41.1%. He was followed by Hong Joon-pyo of the Liberty Korea Party with 24.0%, and Ahn Cheol-soo of the People's Party with 21.4%. However, just one month prior (Gallup, April 4-6, 2017), Moon had 38%, Ahn 35%, and Hong 7%. After controversies surrounding TV debates, Ahn's support sharply declined. Conversely, Hong, who was the main opposition candidate but had single-digit support, saw a rapid increase in votes.

The 2012 presidential election also saw a volatile race within a month. According to a Gallup poll conducted from November 19 to 21, 2012, Park Geun-hye, then the Saenuri Party candidate, had 39%, Moon Jae-in of the Democratic United Party had 24%, and Ahn Cheol-soo, an independent candidate, had 20%. Based on these numbers, Park seemed to have the upper hand, but after discussions on candidate unification, Ahn withdrew and endorsed Moon, changing the race to a two-way contest. In the election, Park received 51.6% and Moon 48.0%, resulting in a close race.

Experts believe the election race can be overturned at any time during the remaining period.

Negative campaigning and verification are the primary wildcards. With growing interest in risks involving not only the candidates but also their families, this election has earned the dishonor of being a 'disliked election.' Up to now, both ruling and opposition parties have launched relentless offensives under the pretext of verifying allegations related to candidates and their spouses. Kim Bong-shin, CEO of Metavoice, predicted, "There are still many issues yet to be verified, so if a highly destructive issue emerges a week before the voting day, it is possible that public opinion could completely swing."

TV debates are also a key variable in changing the race. Lee Taek-soo, CEO of Realmeter, said, "The presidential candidate debate on the 3rd recorded a 39% viewership rating, which is the second highest since 1997," adding, "When TV ratings are high, the presidential election tends to be very close." The more unpredictable and tight the race, the more voters focus on TV debates. With the rapid spread of issues through new media such as YouTube, TV debate topics could become a major factor influencing the election race.

A large ballot box sculpture encouraging voting was installed on the 4th at Gil Hospital Intersection in Namdong-gu, Incheon, about a month before the 20th presidential election.
Incheon - Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

Candidate unification is also crucial. Although both Yoon and Ahn deny the possibility of unification, it remains a major variable in this election. Additionally, Sim Sang-jung, the Justice Party candidate, and Kim Dong-yeon, the New Wave candidate, may also consider alliances with the two leading candidates (Lee and Yoon) instead of completing their campaigns. Changes in the race due to unification could lead to decisive shifts in the election outcome.

Generational voting turnout is another point of interest. In the previous election, public opinion tended to split around the 40s age group, but this election shows a different pattern according to a Gallup poll conducted from the 25th to 27th of last month. Voters in their 20s and those aged 60 and above tend to support Yoon, while those in their 30s, 40s, and 50s show stronger support for Lee. The voting tendencies of swing voters in their 20s and 30s, along with turnout rates across generations, are expected to influence the election race.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.