There are growing concerns that the El Niño currently forming in the tropical Pacific could develop into the most powerful event ever recorded. Experts warn that if this so-called "super El Niño" materializes, 2027 could become the hottest year on record, potentially leading to a sharp surge in global food prices and causing a large-scale humanitarian crisis.

According to international media outlets such as the BBC and CNN, on May 14 (local time), the latest climate prediction models from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast a high probability that the ongoing El Niño will reach a "very strong" phase this fall.

El Niño is a natural phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures near the equator in the Pacific Ocean become higher than average. Recently, temperatures in some areas have risen by about 0.5 degrees Celsius above the seasonal average, meeting one of the criteria for determining the onset of El Niño.

U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Official Start of El Niño Expected This Month

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
Sea Surface Temperature in Specific Pacific Areas
Over 2.5 Degrees Higher Than Average This Fall

If Realized, Will Last for 18 Months
Super Strong El Niño Surpassing 1877 Event
Which Caused Millions of Deaths from Drought and Famine

Global Food Price Surge and Other Crisis Risks

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects El Niño to officially start within this month. It also indicated that there is a likelihood the event will develop into a "strong" or even "very strong" phase by this winter.

More than half of the latest numerical forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predict that sea surface temperatures in specific Pacific regions will be more than 2.5 degrees Celsius above average this fall. Some models even suggest the increase could exceed 3 degrees. If realized, this would surpass the previous record high of 2.7 degrees observed in 1877, making it the most intense El Niño event on record.

The super strong El Niño of 1877 lasted for about 18 months, causing severe droughts and famines across Asia, Brazil, and Africa, and resulting in millions of deaths.

Professor Liz Stephens, a climate risk expert at the University of Reading in the UK, said in an interview with the BBC, "If the upcoming El Niño is indeed very strong, there is a high possibility that the global average temperature will set a new record next year."

When El Niño occurs, there is a likelihood of heavy rains and flooding in northern Peru, southern Ecuador, East Africa, and Central Asia. In contrast, Australia, Indonesia, and northern parts of South America are expected to face increased risks of drought and wildfires.

Professor Stephens further warned, "With the number of people already living in poverty increasing, the combination of droughts and floods caused by El Niño could reduce crop yields and drive food prices even higher. If the crisis in the Middle East continues, a massive humanitarian disaster may unfold."