Lee·Yoon's Cash-Like Promises Focus on '20s'... Will They Really Be Happy to Receive?

Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-yeol's Cash Pledges Cost Over 16 Trillion Won
Regardless of Who Wins, Soldier Treatment to Improve... Monthly Salary 2 Million Won+@
20s Voters' Expectations from Presidential Candidates: 'Real Estate, Job' Solutions

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] To capture the votes of the 20s youth group, expected to play a casting vote role in the March 9 presidential election this year, both Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, are concentrating their efforts. While Lee has a strong support base among people in their 30s and 40s, and Yoon among those in their 50s and 60s and above, the votes of people in their 20s tend to fluctuate frequently depending on the policy pledges from each camp. Amid the candidates' successive announcements of pledges targeting young voters, cash support policies are notably focused on those in their 20s, especially 'Idaenam' (men in their 20s).

◆ Lee: 1.25 million KRW annually for all youth from 2023... Yoon: 500,000 KRW monthly for low-income youth

When aggregating the major income support pledges announced by both candidates by the 30th of this month, both have announced cash pledges amounting to about 16 trillion KRW. In Lee's case, excluding the universal basic income pledge for all citizens, about 16.88 trillion KRW is expected to be required for partial basic income for youth, middle-aged, rural residents, and cultural artists. Yoon's pledges, including parental allowance of 1 million KRW monthly for one year for families with newborns, soldier salary increases, youth leap guarantee funds, and increased agricultural direct payments, are estimated to require about 16.82 trillion KRW.

Notably, both candidates focus on supporting the 'youth' demographic. Lee promised to pay an additional 1 million KRW annually from 2023 to youth aged 19 to 29 (approximately 7 million people), on top of the universal basic income of 250,000 KRW annually for all citizens. This means youth will receive 1.25 million KRW annually starting next year. The required budget is estimated at about 8.75 trillion KRW.

Yoon pledged the 'Youth Leap Guarantee Fund,' providing 500,000 KRW monthly for up to 8 months to vulnerable youth. This alone is expected to cost about 1.5 trillion KRW. Additionally, he proposed the 'Youth Leap Account,' where the state subsidizes 15-25% of contributions up to an annual limit of 2.5 million KRW for youth with income, with a 10-year maturity.

Both candidates also highlight pledges to raise soldier salaries. Lee promised to guarantee soldier salaries of over 2 million KRW, along with 'half-price soldier communication fees' and mandatory recognition of military service years for pay grade. Yoon, not to be outdone, posted a pledge for 'soldier salary 2 million KRW' on his Facebook page as a one-line promise. This policy, costing a total of 7.2 trillion KRW, is expected to be implemented regardless of who becomes president.

◆ What the 20s really want... Solutions to 'real estate and jobs' issues

Although both candidates are flooding the market with cash support pledges to win the votes of those in their 20s, what these voters actually consider important in choosing a candidate is solving 'real estate' and 'job' problems. The criticism is that rather than simply giving out handouts of 'how much support will be given,' candidates need to contemplate more fundamental solutions and present long-term roadmaps.

According to a '2030 public opinion poll' conducted by Realmeter on December 3-4 at the request of YTN, surveying 1,024 men and women aged 18 to 39 (with a 95% confidence level and ±3.1 percentage points margin of error), when asked "What will you focus on most when choosing a candidate to vote for in this presidential election?" those in their 20s most frequently cited real estate (27.9%) and jobs (22.6%).

In a '2030 Generation Political and Social Awareness Survey' conducted by the Korea Social Opinion Institute (KSOI) at the request of Herald Economy from December 27 to 29 last year, surveying 1,018 men and women aged 18 to 39 (with a 95% confidence level and ±3.1 percentage points margin of error), when asked about the 'desired next president,' those in their 20s ranked 'a president who can resolve social conflicts (20.3%)', 'a president who can expedite home ownership (20.2%)', and 'a president who can help with employment (18.4%)' in that order.

There was much skepticism about cash payment pledges. According to a public opinion poll conducted in November last year (November 6-7, targeting 1,003 men and women aged 18 and above, conducted by Korea Economic Daily and Ipsos, with a 95% confidence level and ±3.1 percentage points margin of error) regarding additional universal disaster relief payments, only 22.0% of respondents supported 'additional universal disaster relief payments.' Opposition to additional payments was 47.7%, and selective payments to vulnerable groups were 29.6%, meaning that effectively 77.3% opposed 'universal payments.' By age group, only 13.1% of those in their 20s (ages 18-29) felt additional universal payments were necessary. This is interpreted as a judgment that such cash support could boomerang back on themselves or the next generation. Even within the ruling party, which should support Lee's basic income pledge, disagreements remain over 'universal support' versus 'selective support.'

A Democratic Party official said, "Even if it is cash support, it should not be just handing out money and ending there. It should be shown as one step in a long-term plan to solve youth problems and ultimately a solution to help them dream of a better future than now."

For detailed information related to the polls, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.