Sooeun "Exports in Q1 This Year Expected to Increase by 15-16% Compared to Last Year"

Record Level of $169 Billion Expected for Basic Q1
"Export Growth to Continue but at a Slightly Moderate Pace"

[Asia Economy Reporter Yu Je-hoon] The Korea Eximbank Overseas Economic Research Institute forecasted on the 26th that exports in the first quarter of this year will increase by 15-16% compared to the same period last year, reaching around $169 billion, the highest first-quarter record to date.

According to the '2021 Q4 Export Performance Evaluation and 2022 Q1 Outlook' released by the Eximbank on the same day, exports in the fourth quarter of last year amounted to $176.7 billion, up 24.6% from the same period the previous year. This marks the fifth consecutive quarter of year-on-year growth and sets a new record for the highest quarterly export figure.

By export item, all 14 major items except automobile parts recorded growth, and by region, export growth continued in key areas such as China, the United States, the European Union (EU), Japan, ASEAN, and Vietnam.

For exports in the first quarter of this year, the export leading index was surveyed at 134.2, up 17.4 points from the same period last year. The export leading index has risen for five consecutive quarters year-on-year and six consecutive quarters quarter-on-quarter, indicating that the export growth trend will continue, but the pace of increase is expected to moderate due to a narrowing margin, according to the Eximbank's analysis.

Looking at the components of the export leading index, the economies of export destination countries such as the United States and the Eurozone, major advanced countries, showed that the growth rebound following the lifting of COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns peaked in the fourth quarter of last year but stable growth is being maintained. Export prices are also maintaining an upward trend due to rising prices of major raw materials such as crude oil and non-ferrous metals.

Regarding major industrial sectors, the export growth of key items such as semiconductors and petrochemicals is expected to continue due to increased IT and related demand driven by ongoing non-face-to-face economic activities. However, as major countries gradually normalize monetary policies and face downside risks to their economies, the export growth rate is predicted to somewhat decrease.

An Eximbank official stated, "Although export prices are rising due to increases in raw material prices, the export growth trend is expected to ease due to a reduction in the base effect and a slowdown in the economic growth of major countries. If the spread of the Omicron variant continues, causing prolonged global supply chain disruptions and port logistics congestion, and if economic slowdown leads to a contraction in exports to China, the export growth rate may fall short of the forecast."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.