[The Editors' Verdict] Germany, the 'Nuclear Phase-Out' Role Model, How Did It Become an Energy Hostage?

Russia, which forcibly annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in 2014, is now eyeing the Ukrainian mainland. It is using Ukraine's move to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a pretext.

Russia is demanding from the West, including the United States, that Ukraine should neither join NATO nor deploy offensive weapons on its soil. Meanwhile, it has deployed 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border. Russia has also sent troops to its ally Belarus, located north of Ukraine, effectively surrounding Ukraine on three sides. In response, the U.S. Department of Defense has issued a readiness order for 8,500 troops. Observers are increasingly predicting an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. President Joe Biden said at his two-year anniversary press conference, "It looks like Putin is going to move."

If Russia invades Ukraine, there are concerns that the world will plunge into the greatest turmoil since World War II. Financial markets are also on high alert. The United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union (EU) have already announced strong economic sanctions against Russia.

Russia's weapon against Western sanctions is its vast resources. Europe is heavily dependent on Russia for natural gas. Forty percent of the natural gas used in Europe is imported from Russia. Germany's dependence on Russian natural gas is especially high, reaching 50%. If Russia retaliates by shutting off gas pipelines, Germany would face an energy crisis. As tensions over Ukraine escalated, European natural gas prices surged 15% in a single day on the 24th.

As part of its environmental policy, Germany has been gradually reducing nuclear and coal power for the past 20 years. This year, the last three remaining nuclear power plants are scheduled to be shut down. Coal power plants will be completely closed by 2038. Instead of nuclear and coal, Germany has expanded natural gas power generation, which emits less carbon dioxide. Most of this natural gas is imported from Russia through pipelines.

This structure posed no problems in normal times but reveals vulnerabilities during crises. The current Ukraine situation is no exception. Germany has consistently taken a passive stance toward Russia, which threatens Ukraine, and the reason behind this is an open secret: natural gas. Germany's ambiguous attitude is causing difficulties for allies like the United States, who need to pressure Russia.

In fact, natural gas is a double-edged sword for Russia. If it cannot export natural gas, Russia will inevitably suffer economic damage. The United States wants to pressure Russia by shutting down the Nord Stream 2 pipeline connecting Russia and Germany, but it has been unable to do so due to Germany's opposition.

According to the British economic weekly The Economist, if Russia's natural gas supply to Europe is completely cut off, the Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom would incur losses of $203 million to $228 million per day. If such measures continue for three months, Russia's economic losses are expected to reach $20 billion.

Currently, Germany, which has become an energy hostage to Russia, was a model for South Korea's nuclear phase-out policy. Therefore, Germany's situation does not feel like someone else's problem. South Korea is surrounded by the sea on three sides and blocked by North Korea to the north. It is practically an energy island. An energy security crisis could push our fate to the brink at any time. This is why energy policy must not be formulated by looking at only one aspect.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.