[Desk Column] This Year’s Window of Opportunity for North Korea Will Only Open Briefly

[Asia Economy Senior Reporter Jinsoo Lee] The Biden administration in the United States has taken out the sanctions card and issued a strong warning in response to North Korea's successive ballistic missile test launches. This sanction is significant as it is the first sanction imposed by the Biden administration related to North Korea's ballistic missile activities. However, are sanctions the only solution?

On the 5th, North Korea claimed to have launched a hypersonic missile and fired one ballistic missile into the East Sea. Then, six days later on the 11th, it launched another missile into the East Sea. This is interpreted as North Korea applying pressure on the United States and the international community to gain political and economic concessions amid the deadlock caused by the U.S. blocking discussions on lifting UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea. It is meant to remind the Biden administration, which has remained silent toward North Korea, of the need for negotiations.

Until now, the top priority in discussions within the U.S. administration and Congress has been the China issue. After prioritizing Russia and Iran, and then the Afghanistan withdrawal crisis, the North Korea issue was continuously pushed to the back burner. When North Korea was quiet, the nuclear and missile issues were neglected. It is concerning that North Korea's provocations are only discussed as an agenda item when they occur, as seen recently.

Japan has used these moments as an excuse to ramp up its military power and made a fuss. Some right-wing politicians in Japan have even called for nuclear weapons development. On the 12th, Hirokazu Matsuno, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary, emphasized that Japan will consider possessing “enemy base strike capabilities” to defend itself and develop new weapons like railguns, as if waiting for the opportunity. The United States, which hopes Japan will play an active security role not only in Northeast Asia?the frontline of U.S.-China confrontation?but also in the Indo-Pacific region, would not refuse this.

Enemy base strike capability refers to attacking and destroying enemy bases or military strongholds, such as ballistic missile launch sites, using bombers, cruise missiles, and other means. It means possessing long-range precision strike capabilities to neutralize enemy bases just before an enemy attack. This opens the possibility of preemptive strikes against other countries and provoking aggressive wars.

If the Liberal Democratic Party decides to amend Japan’s “Peace Constitution,” which was forced upon them by the U.S., and possess enemy base strike capabilities, it is obvious that an arms race will spread in Northeast Asia. This will inevitably lead to heightened tensions in the region. Misjudgments or overreactions by Japan could put the Korean Peninsula at risk of war.

It is clear that North Korea continues to develop missiles that are difficult to intercept with existing defense systems. However, the likelihood of North Korea launching ballistic missiles toward Japan is very low. The Japanese archipelago is a strategic base for the U.S., hosting 84 U.S. military bases. If North Korea attacks Japan, it is likely to face a fierce counterattack from the U.S. military, which could lead to North Korea’s destruction.

As Ken Gause, Director of the Adversary Analysis Division at the U.S. Navy’s Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) and a North Korea expert, said, North Korea’s missile launches are a desperate signal saying that if you want to stop nuclear and missile launches, start by easing sanctions.

The Beijing Winter Olympics will be held on February 4 next month. On March 4, China’s largest political event, the Two Sessions (National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference), will take place. Then on March 9, South Korea will hold its presidential election, with the new president inaugurated on May 10. On November 8, the U.S. will hold its midterm elections. South Korea, the U.S., and China will all be too preoccupied to pay attention to North Korea.

The opportunity is only in January and February this year. Both South Korea and the U.S. should try to keep contact with North Korea, not through sanctions but through unofficial channels, offering “carrots” to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table.

The window of opportunity is not always open. It opens only briefly.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.