Unvaccinated Individuals Barred from Marts and Department Stores Starting Today... Q1 Consumption Impact Unavoidable

Pregnant Women and Those with Unique Constitutions Complain About Non-Vaccination
Limits of Online Consumption... High-End Product Spending Expected to Decline

On the 9th, one day before the expansion of the quarantine pass to department stores and large supermarkets, customers visiting Yangjae Hanara-ro Mart in Seocho-gu, Seoul, are verifying their vaccination status through QR codes before entering the mart. Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Sehee]"I recently gave birth and started breastfeeding, so I am cautious about getting vaccinated. I just gave birth and my body is weak, so I am genuinely worried about potential side effects. I will have to go to the supermarket myself to buy ingredients, which is also a concern."

Kim, a 32-year-old housewife in her 30s who has not received the COVID-19 vaccine, expressed dissatisfaction regarding the implementation of the 'quarantine pass.'

As the quarantine pass is applied to department stores and large supermarkets starting from the 10th, private consumption in the first quarter is also expected to be impacted. Experts have diagnosed that the implementation of the quarantine pass will inevitably lead to a contraction in private consumption in the first quarter.

From today, to use large-scale stores over 3,000㎡, a COVID-19 vaccination certificate or a PCR negative confirmation issued within 48 hours, i.e., a quarantine pass, is required. If caught using the facilities without a quarantine pass, users will be fined 100,000 KRW, and facility operators will face fines up to 3 million KRW and business suspension depending on the number of violations.

Exceptions to the quarantine pass include COVID-19 recovered patients or those exempted for medical reasons, who must present a quarantine release certificate or an exemption certificate.

Limits of Online Consumption... Expected Decrease in Spending on High-End Products

Professor Kim Tae-gi of Dankook University's Department of Economics stated, "A contraction in consumption due to the implementation of the quarantine pass is inevitable," adding, "If the application of the quarantine pass expands, the impact could be even greater."

He also noted, "People often purchase standardized goods online, but consumption may decrease particularly for high-end products that require direct inspection before purchase."

He predicted that if the consumption effect during the Lunar New Year decreases, private consumption in the first quarter could decline more than initially expected.

Professor Kim Sang-bong of Hansung University's Department of Economics explained, "Sales of items like shoes and clothing, which are typically purchased in person, may decline somewhat," but added, "However, since some consumption is replaced by online purchases, the drop in consumption might not be as large as expected."

Will Private Consumption Record Another Negative... Focus on Private Consumption in Q1 This Year

The Bank of Korea also does not rule out the possibility of a decline in private consumption within the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A Bank of Korea official said, "With social distancing followed by the quarantine pass, private consumption is expected to decrease somewhat," adding, "It may be somewhat more negative than previous forecasts."

In fact, private consumption in the third quarter of last year recorded -0.2% compared to the previous quarter, a decline from 3.6% in the second quarter. In the third quarter, food and beverages increased, but food and lodging, entertainment, and culture decreased.

Meanwhile, the Korea Development Institute (KDI) forecasted that domestic demand will recover significantly this year, growing by 3.0%. In particular, private consumption is expected to increase by 3.9%, showing a solid recovery centered on service consumption.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.