If Omicron Spread Becomes Reality... "Average Weekly Cases in March to Reach 20,000, Severe Cases Over 2,000" Predicted

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Chun-hee] If the Omicron COVID-19 variant, known for its faster transmissibility compared to previous variants, rapidly spreads in South Korea, the weekly average number of confirmed cases is predicted to reach 20,000 by March, with more than 2,000 critical patients.

Professor Jung Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine stated at the "Omicron Outbreak Forecast and Future Tasks Discussion" held at the Press Center in Jung-gu, Seoul on the afternoon of the 7th that if Omicron spreads domestically, "a rapid increase in the scale of the outbreak is expected after the end of this month," adding, "the 7-day moving average could reach 20,000 cases in early to mid-March, and the number of critical patients hospitalized in mid-March could exceed 2,000."

This diagnosis was made using the "AI-based Infectious Disease Outbreak Prediction Algorithm and Intervention Strategy Effectiveness Analysis System" model, assuming that third doses of vaccination for those under 60 will be completed by the end of March, oral antiviral treatments will be introduced, and the current strengthened social distancing measures will be gradually eased starting from the 17th.

Pfizer's oral COVID-19 treatment 'Paxlovid'
[Image source=Yonhap News]

Professor Jung emphasized that strategies to reduce COVID-19 damage through 'pharmacological interventions' such as vaccines and treatments should be combined with 'non-pharmacological interventions' like vaccination proof and negative test confirmation systems (vaccine passes) and social distancing to delay damage.

He projected that the introduction of oral antiviral treatments would significantly reduce hospitalization and severity rates and urged active procurement of these treatments. It is estimated that hospitalization could decrease by 30% and severity by 87%, and upon actual introduction, the number of hospitalized and critical patients could be reduced by up to 55%.

Currently, the South Korean government has contracted to import a total of 1,004,000 doses of oral antiviral treatments, including 762,000 doses of Pfizer's Paxlovid and 242,000 doses of Merck (MSD)'s Molnupiravir. Paxlovid is expected to be introduced domestically starting next week, with detailed criteria for administration still under negotiation.

Regarding social distancing, Professor Jung called for securing procedural legitimacy of the vaccine pass while adjusting its application targets to increase social acceptance. He also suggested that gradual and phased easing of distancing measures should correspond to the level of medical capacity and align with long-term forecast scenarios for easing quarantine measures.

Citizens visiting the temporary screening clinic set up at Seoul Station Plaza on the 5th, where 4,444 new COVID-19 cases were reported, are undergoing testing. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

Professor Kim Nam-joong of Seoul National University College of Medicine, an internal medicine specialist and chairman of the Korean Society of Infectious Diseases, analyzed data from South Africa, Canada, and the United States and found that the Omicron variant has lower hospitalization rates, severe bed admission rates, and mortality compared to the Delta variant. Hospitalization or mortality rates are estimated to be around 35%, and intensive care unit admissions about 33%.

However, he noted that differences in prior infection rates, vaccination rates, and medical environments such as hospital bed structures between South Korea and other countries could cause discrepancies, so additional consideration of these variables is necessary.

Joo Young-soo, head of the Public Health Medical Division at the National Medical Center, also stated that the Omicron variant is expected to spread domestically by next month. He reported that the reproduction number of the Omicron variant is estimated to be 4.2 times higher than that of the Delta variant, and the hospitalization rate is estimated to be between one-fifth and one-third of Delta's.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.