"Is the Vaccine Ineffective?"... Expert Refutes Futility Claims: "Not 100% Safe but Very Safe"

"If There Were No Vaccine, the Outbreak Scale Would Have Increased Much More Than Now"

Professor Jaehoon Jung, Gachon University College of Medicine. / Photo by YouTube channel 'I am a Doctor' capture

[Asia Economy Reporter Na Ye-eun] Professor Jung Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine emphasized that COVID-19 vaccination is "not 100% safe but very safe."

On the 5th, Professor Jung posted on his social media (SNS), "One of the most frequently asked questions in recent news articles and comment responses is, 'Why are confirmed cases, critically ill patients, and deaths increasing despite the rise in vaccination rates?' and 'Does this mean the vaccine is ineffective?' This is a matter that requires sufficient understanding as it can lead to vaccine ineffectiveness arguments or the opposite, but it seems there is a lack of clear explanation," he began.

Professor Jung cited the following reasons for these questions: △ it is difficult to control the COVID-19 outbreak with vaccination alone △ the scale of the outbreak inevitably increases until the proportion of immunity acquired through vaccination and infection reaches a certain level △ the number of critically ill patients and deaths is determined by the scale of the outbreak.

He continued, "The transmissibility of the virus is represented by the basic reproduction number. The basic reproduction number of the currently circulating Delta variant is estimated to be around 5 to 6. This means that without any measures, one infected person can infect 5 to 6 new people."

He added, "Currently, the vaccine's effectiveness varies depending on whether a booster shot has been administered and the time elapsed, but it is evaluated to prevent infection at a rate of 60-80%. Since the vaccination rate is also below 85%, considering this, among 5 to 6 new infections, about 3 to 3.5 infections can be prevented by the vaccine. Still, one infected person produces 1.5 to 3 new infections. In other words, the scale of the outbreak can only continue to increase with vaccination alone."

COVID-19 vaccine. /Photo by Getty Images Bank

However, Professor Jung stated, "This increasing trend does not always continue," emphasizing, "When the proportion of people who have newly acquired immunity through vaccination and infection reaches a certain level, the scale of the outbreak naturally decreases. This is the herd immunity effect."

He added, "Herd immunity is difficult to achieve through vaccination alone," but "if vaccination covers a significant portion and the rest is supplemented and complemented by immunity through infection, it is possible to reach the herd immunity level."

He also noted, "From the point when the adult population vaccination rate reaches 90%, the number of critically ill patients and deaths is mostly determined by the scale of the outbreak," adding, "As the outbreak scale increases, deaths and critically ill patients inevitably increase proportionally. Vaccination alone can reduce the speed of outbreak growth but cannot stop the increase itself, so the absolute number of critically ill patients and deaths will continue to be affected by the outbreak."

Nevertheless, Professor Jung repeatedly emphasized that the increase in confirmed cases, severe patients, and deaths should never lead to vaccine ineffectiveness arguments. He said, "An absolute increase in patients does not mean the vaccine is ineffective," and "If there had been no vaccination, the outbreak scale would have increased much more rapidly than now."

Furthermore, he stated, "Vaccination has prevented tremendous damage and will continue to do so, but because its effects are not visible, misinformation about vaccine effectiveness will inevitably continue," adding, "Of course, vaccination is not 100% safe. However, it is very safe. If you find it hard to trust domestic authorities or experts, please look at the decisions made by reputable global health authorities."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.