[AKyung Poll] Election Probability: Yoon 48.5% vs Lee 37.7%... Gap Widens to 10.8%p

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] Yoon Seok-yeol, the People Power Party candidate, is leading Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party candidate, by double-digit margins in the survey on the likelihood of winning next year's presidential election.

On the 23rd, Asia Economy commissioned Win-G Korea Consulting to conduct a public opinion poll from the 20th to the 21st targeting 1,025 voters nationwide aged 18 and over (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response). When asked who has the highest 'possibility' of ultimately winning the presidency regardless of 'candidate support,' 48.5% chose candidate Yoon, while 37.7% chose candidate Lee.

Candidate Yoon's rating increased by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous survey (conducted on the 6th-7th), whereas candidate Lee's rating dropped by 1.0 percentage point, widening the gap between the two candidates from 8.2 percentage points to 10.8 percentage points.

By age group, the likelihood of Yoon winning was viewed highly among those in their 20s (44.0%), 50s (50.7%), and 60s and above (61.0%), while those in their 40s (52.5%) rated Lee's chances higher. In the 30s age group, the winning possibilities for both candidates were similar (Yoon Seok-yeol 43.2%, Lee Jae-myung 40.5%).

By region, Yoon's chances of winning were higher in all areas except the Honam region. In particular, more than half of respondents in Seoul (51.5%), Daegu-Gyeongbuk (61.9%), and Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (56.9%) chose candidate Yoon, while candidate Lee was rated higher in Gwangju, Jeonbuk, and Jeonnam (64.0%).

The winning possibilities for other candidates besides the two were all very low, below 3%. Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party received 2.3%, followed by Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party (1.5%), and Kim Dong-yeon, the preparatory committee chairman of the New Wave Party (0.6%). 'Other figures' accounted for 2.2%, and 'Don't know/No opinion' was 7.2%.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting targeting voters aged 18 and over nationwide from the 20th to the 21st, with 1,025 respondents and an overall response rate of 7.5%. The survey method was wireless ARS with 100% mobile phone virtual numbers, and the sample was extracted using weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.