In the 'With Corona' Era... How Many Confirmed Cases Are Considered 'Safe'?

Increase in COVID-19 Cases Worldwide After With-Corona
Some European Countries Shift to 'Re-lockdown' Policies
UK and Others Still Push for Lifting Social Distancing
Safety Standards Vary by Country After Vaccination
Broad Consideration of Healthcare Capacity Alongside Infection Status

Since the transition to a phased return to normal life (With Corona) and the shift in the quarantine system, the daily number of confirmed cases has been gradually increasing. / Photo by Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Juhyung] Along with the start of the phased return to normal life ('With Corona'), the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and critically ill patients is rapidly increasing. Although the vaccination rate is high, the spread of the infectious disease is very fast, and factors such as the 'Delta variant' that reduce vaccine effectiveness are acting in combination. Not only domestically but also overseas, most countries that lifted social distancing measures after vaccination are experiencing faster infection rates.

◆Increase in Daily Confirmed Cases After 'With Corona'

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, as of midnight on the 19th, the total number of new domestic COVID-19 confirmed cases was 3,034. The number of new critically ill patients was recorded at 499.

The daily confirmed cases have reached 3,000 for three consecutive days, and COVID-19 is spreading rapidly. As the number of confirmed cases increases, the number of critically ill patients is also gradually rising, and accordingly, the number of intensive care unit (ICU) beds in hospitals has started to decrease. As of the 18th, the ICU bed occupancy rate in the metropolitan area was 78.2%, with Seoul recording 80.9%.

The government plans to make every effort to secure personnel and equipment to prevent a shortage of beds in the metropolitan area.

Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum emphasized at a meeting held at the government Seoul office annex on the 19th, "The shortage of beds in the metropolitan area is becoming increasingly serious," adding, "Above all, we must quickly expand the number of beds. We will prioritize patient safety and manage ICU beds integrally without distinction between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas."

◆Some European Countries Partially Reimpose Lockdowns

The government transitioned the quarantine system to 'With Corona' starting from the 1st of this month. Accordingly, many of the existing social distancing measures have been eased. This was based on the judgment that the infection situation could be managed without strict quarantine measures, as the adult COVID-19 second vaccination rate exceeded 70%.

On the 17th (local time), a sign mandating mask-wearing was seen at a train station in Cologne, Germany. / Photo by Yonhap News

However, the number of confirmed cases and critically ill patients is once again showing an increasing trend. This appears to be due to the very rapid spread of the infectious disease and multiple factors such as the 'Delta variant,' which significantly reduces the vaccine's infection prevention effect.

Not only domestically but also in Europe, which declared 'With Corona' early, the number of confirmed cases is rapidly increasing. In some countries, the daily number of confirmed cases is even more severe than before vaccination.

For example, Germany recorded a staggering 65,371 new confirmed cases on the 18th (local time), surpassing 60,000 for the first time since COVID-19 statistics began to be compiled. This is a much higher number of infections than when only distancing measures were in place without vaccination. Other European countries are also experiencing a rapid increase in confirmed cases.

However, the criteria for 'safety' regarding infection levels after With Corona vary by country. For instance, the Netherlands, where new confirmed cases recently surged by 33%, announced a 'partial lockdown' and reinstated some distancing measures.

Austria is also considering high-intensity lockdown measures only for unvaccinated individuals, and Ireland has reintroduced restrictions such as limiting the operating hours of pubs, nightclubs, and restaurants to midnight starting from the 18th. Germany, which recorded the highest number of confirmed cases ever, is discussing a 'lockdown for unvaccinated people' in some regions.

On July 19, when the UK lifted COVID-19 restrictions, known as "Freedom Day," young people were cheering at a club in Farringdon, London. / Photo by Yonhap News

On the other hand, some countries are pushing forward with With Corona. The most representative country is the United Kingdom, which has been continuing its 'Freedom Day' since July, effectively lifting almost all social distancing restrictions. Even mask-wearing is no longer mandatory.

◆Divergent COVID-19 Response Measures Among Countries... Different 'Safety' Standards

Why do countries have differing response measures after With Corona? There is a view that safety standards vary depending on the medical environment each country faces.

Although COVID-19 spreads rapidly even after vaccination, the proportion of critically ill patients or deaths has significantly decreased. In other words, even if confirmed cases increase dramatically, the healthcare system has more capacity to handle the situation than before.

According to the British media 'The Telegraph,' after Freedom Day, the average number of confirmed cases in the UK was higher than in most European countries, but the number of patients did not rise to a level that threatened the operation of the National Health Service (NHS). Therefore, the UK proceeded with With Corona despite the serious infection levels.

Another reason is that social consensus on 'safety' differs by country. Policies can vary depending on whether more weight is placed on the safety of the entire population or on freedom.

Europeans receiving COVID-19 booster shots / Photo by Yonhap News

For example, France issued 'health passes' to fully vaccinated individuals, allowing visits to restaurants, cafes, and cinemas to manage infections after vaccination began. However, in the UK, where a similar system was being prepared, there was continuous controversy that the pass threatened citizens' freedom, and it was officially abolished in September.

◆Flexible Response Through 'COVID-19 Risk Assessment Indicators' Domestically

In other words, after With Corona, the 'health crisis' can vary depending on the medical environment and social consensus of the country.

The 'COVID-19 Risk Assessment Indicators' disclosed by domestic quarantine authorities also take this into account. This indicator evaluates the risk level of the COVID-19 infection situation weekly and discusses whether to implement emergency plans. It broadly considers not only COVID-19 occurrence indicators but also the country's healthcare capacity, such as medical response capability, the occupancy rate of beds in infectious disease-dedicated hospitals, and the proportion of patients treated at home.

Emergency plans to revert some distancing measures will be decided very cautiously. Jeong Eun-kyung, head of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, explained, "Based on urgent evaluations, we decide whether to partially strengthen measures or activate emergency plans. We do not immediately activate emergency plans just because one indicator exceeds the standard."

Experts suggest that thorough national efforts are necessary for the recovery of daily life.

Professor Jung Jae-hoon of Gachon University emphasized, "Even if 3,000 confirmed cases occur daily, it would take nearly 10 years to reach the immunity level we need, and we cannot endure socioeconomic damage for such a long time. It is safer to proceed with preparations intensively and ease restrictions as much as we are prepared."

He added, "It is necessary to provide vaccination opportunities to unvaccinated high-risk groups as much as possible, prepare treatment beds and medical personnel that can endure for several years, and enable mild patients to receive treatment at home."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.