[Namsan Ddalggakbari] Calling for 'Deceleration' in the Era of High-Speed Acceleration... "It's Time to Turn Away Now"

Slowdown / Written by Danny Dorling / Translated by Kim Pilgyu / Wings of Knowledge / 29,000 KRW

[Asia Economy Reporter Minwoo Lee] "The era of hyper-acceleration has come to an end. In this era where ‘deceleration’ begins instead of decline, we can regain our peak."

Danny Dorling, professor of geography at the University of Oxford in the UK and author of Slowdown, declared the end of the ‘innovation rally’ among companies, societies, and nations under perfect competition. The ‘slowdown’ emphasized by the author means not a decrease but a ‘deceleration.’ It signifies that the terrifyingly rapid changes will no longer occur, and the speed will gradually slow down.

From the Era of Hyper-Acceleration to the Era of Deceleration

Over the past 160 years, the global population has doubled twice, and then nearly doubled once more. Worldwide per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has increased more than tenfold in real terms. Humanity, once riding horses, has begun space travel. Straining to keep up with ever-increasing speed was essential.

However, now this speed has started to slow down. Although progress continues, the pace is not what it used to be. Population, economy, technology, and ideas are all gradually reducing their growth rates. Even the smartphone, once considered a major innovation, is described as a minor shock compared to the first appearances of the telephone, computer, and internet.

The author argues for the era’s deceleration based on extensive data and charts. He also points out that absurd generalizations related to the speed of change are repeatedly made. The so-called ‘data flood’ is a prime example. The common belief that more data is being created than ever before and that information and knowledge are accumulating at an immeasurably fast rate is directly rejected. He emphasizes that the evidence for such claims is weak, and it is actually easier to find grounds suggesting that data production will not increase. He stated, "Every month, every person on Earth is creating data equivalent to 8 billion characters," and added, "Such data has little significance for the advancement of human knowledge and is mostly useless or duplicated, with many copies already produced multiple times in various places."

As evidence, he cited Wikipedia. Initially, vast amounts of information were categorized and registered, but now the rate of increase in both total and new visitors is slowing down. Since its launch on January 15, 2001, over 19 years, Wikipedia articles have grown from 19,700 to 5,773,600. Within the first month, 1,000 articles were added, and 10,000 within six months. Two years later, it surpassed 100,000, and five years later, 1 million. The time taken to increase tenfold has gradually shortened. Professor Dorling explained, "As the rate of increase in information accessible on the internet slows, the annual growth in content is now only about 10%," adding, "The explosive early growth phase has now ended."

He highlights similar ‘slowdowns’ in various fields such as population, carbon emissions, GDP, housing prices, and stock markets. While most fields show an upward curve over time, the growth rate is clearly decreasing. He does not stop at simple numerical comparisons but also examines the implications. For example, although a positive correlation between population growth and carbon emissions is confirmed, he does not oversimplify it. By analyzing industries and income levels by country, he notes that pollution arises from a small number of countries consuming specific products.

Slowing Growth Means ‘Stability’

The author does not view the slowdown in growth pessimistically. Rather, he is optimistic that it is approaching ‘stability.’ The era of hyper-acceleration brought great progress to humanity but also significant hardships. Now, a stable system is needed to curb capitalism’s momentum and reduce inequality, war, and conflict, and for this, slowdown is important. Professor Dorling stated, "Like before the era of hyper-acceleration, we will work less within manageable speeds and spend more time with family and friends," emphasizing, "Change will not happen overnight; it may take longer than expected and face considerable resistance, but ultimately the world will improve."

In some ways, the author’s perspective may seem somewhat ambiguous and naive. If, as Professor Dorling describes, human progress has oscillated like a pendulum, the current situation might just be a temporary low point in that swing. It may be difficult to find clear evidence of a second derivative of the growth curve, a turning point called ‘deceleration.’ However, in a world transformed by COVID-19, this is certainly a matter worth reconsidering.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.