Kishida Era in Full Swing... Can It Escape the Shadow of '3A'?

Powerful '3A (Abe, Aso, Amari)' in the Party
Defeated Kono with Faction Support Base
Inherited Political Lineage Since Grandfather
Challenges: COVID-19 Response and Economic Revival

▲On the 29th, Fumio Kishida, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, was elected as the 27th President of the Liberal Democratic Party. Kishida is scheduled to become the 100th Prime Minister of Japan at the extraordinary Diet session on the 4th of next month. Due to the parliamentary system in Japan, the leader of the ruling party is appointed as Prime Minister.

Japan (Tokyo) = AFP·Jiji Press [Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] Fumio Kishida (64), the key figure behind the 'South Korea-Japan Comfort Women Agreement,' has been designated as the next Prime Minister of Japan, following Yoshihide Suga. Although he secured the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) by defeating Kono with a solid intra-party support base, there are concerns that if he fails to clearly differentiate himself from the Suga Cabinet due to his weak popular support, he may face a backlash.

◆ An 'Elite Political Silver Spoon' Following an Elite Path = Fumio Kishida was born in 1957 in Shibuya, Tokyo, and graduated from Kaisei High School, one of Japan's most prestigious schools. His family has a long tradition of Tokyo University graduates; although he aimed for Tokyo University and attempted the entrance exam three times, he failed and graduated from Waseda University's Faculty of Law. Afterwards, he worked as a foreign exchange banker at the Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan (now Shinsei Bank) before serving as a secretary to his father, Fumitake Kishida, where he honed his political acumen. In 1993, the year after his father's death, he entered politics by winning a seat in Hiroshima Prefecture, his father's electoral district, and has since been elected nine times.

Fumio Kishida is considered a representative 'silver spoon' politician in Japanese politics. He is a typical hereditary politician from his grandfather's generation and belongs to the prestigious 'Kishida faction,' which has produced four prime ministers within the party. His grandfather, Masaki Kishida, a former member of the House of Representatives, entered politics after working in real estate and department stores, and his father, Fumitake Kishida, was a former Minister of Small and Medium Enterprises and a member of the House of Representatives. Former Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yoichi Miyazawa is his cousin. Thanks to this background, he was able to secure the party presidency by surpassing Kono, who had a solid popular support base, including among younger lawmakers.

◆ Rose to Presidency Through Factional Politics... But Challenges Abound = Although Kishida rose to the presidency backed by factional politics, this is also considered one of the major challenges he must overcome. Kishida secured victory with the support of the powerful '3A' within the LDP. The '3A' refers to the first letters of the English names of three close allies with far-right leanings: former Prime Minister Abe, Deputy Prime Minister Aso, and Chairman Amari. Former Prime Minister Abe leads the largest faction in the LDP, the Hosoda faction (96 members), while Deputy Prime Minister Aso leads the second-largest, the Aso faction (53 members). Chairman Amari is known to have supported Kishida from the beginning.

Having risen to the presidency through factional politics, Kishida is inevitably influenced by the behind-the-scenes power of the '3A,' raising concerns that this could become an obstacle to his proposed LDP reforms.

Moreover, with Kishida being elected instead of the more popularly supported Kono, skepticism is spreading that factionalism ultimately decides leadership, risking a loss of public support.

It has also been pointed out that to avoid following in the footsteps of Prime Minister Suga, who resigned in disgrace after a sharp drop in approval ratings due to poor COVID-19 response, Kishida must lead both the COVID-19 response and economic revival. Since he rose to the presidency through factional politics, successfully achieving this would highlight his differences from the Suga Cabinet and help solidify his popular support base.

Regarding economic policy, Kishida stated in his manifesto that he intends to "change the neoliberalism that has continued for 20 years since former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's administration and emphasize redistribution." In a post-election press conference, he also mentioned, "Our goal is to build a new capitalism" and "to deliver the fruits of growth to every corner of the country."

◆ Kishida Values Relations with Allies... Will He Open a New Chapter in South Korea-Japan Relations? = On the 29th, following Kishida's election as the new party president, China quickly issued a statement expressing hope for practical cooperation between the two countries.

Hua Chunying, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a regular briefing that "China and Japan hope to deepen practical cooperation in various fields and that China-Japan relations will develop healthily and steadily on the right track." However, she refrained from offering congratulations due to ongoing issues such as the Senkaku Islands (called Diaoyu Islands in China) territorial dispute, Taiwan, and Japan's participation in the Quad.

A senior official from the Biden administration also stated regarding Kishida's election as the next prime minister, "President Biden looks forward to working together to strengthen U.S.-Japan cooperation."

On the same day, the Blue House (South Korea's presidential office) belatedly expressed a somewhat general stance, stating it "will cooperate for the development of a future-oriented relationship (with Japan)."

This comes amid rising tensions between the two countries after a South Korean court on the 27th ordered the sale of domestic assets of the Japanese war criminal company Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which had ignored compensation for forced labor victims during the Japanese colonial period. Additionally, longstanding issues such as the comfort women problem, Dokdo territorial claims, and Japan's export restrictions remain unresolved. Particularly, since Kishida signed the 'South Korea-Japan Comfort Women Agreement' in 2015 as Foreign Minister, replacing former Prime Minister Abe, it is expected that the South Korean government's compliance with past history issues may be questioned.

However, as the Biden administration emphasizes trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan to counter China, there is also an assessment that Japan may leave room for cooperation with South Korea through security collaboration.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.